Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Apr 30, 2026
EPS actual
$1.86
EPS est.
$1.82
EPS surprise
+2.09%
1-day move
+6.35%
Saia, Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings per share for Q1-2026, which led to a positive stock reaction, rising 6.35%. The strong EPS performance suggests the company is managing its costs effectively, even though revenue figures were not disclosed. Investors may view this earnings beat as a sign of resilience in a competitive market.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.86 | $1.82 | +2.09% |
| Revenue | N/A | $789M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Saia, Inc. is a transportation company specializing in cargo ground transportation services. Operating within the industrials sector, Saia plays a crucial role in logistics, connecting businesses and consumers through efficient freight solutions.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Saia reported an EPS of $1.77, falling short of expectations by 6.74%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 6.83% the following day.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-1.70%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.96%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic, expecting Saia to report an EPS of $1.82 and revenue of $789 million. However, the company has struggled with meeting earnings expectations recently.
Bull case
If Saia can exceed the EPS estimate, it may signal a turnaround in profitability and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, another earnings miss could further erode investor trust and lead to a significant stock decline.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.82Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$789MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall business health.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Saia's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.82?
A beat on EPS could restore confidence after recent misses and positively impact the stock price.
Q2
What will management say about revenue growth and operational challenges?
Insights into revenue performance and any operational hurdles will be critical for understanding the company's trajectory.
—
Est. EPS
$0.76
Est. Rev
$17.1B
Impl. Move
±2.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for Saia to rebound, given its recent operational adjustments and cost management strategies.
Supporting evidence
Saia has historically shown resilience following earnings misses, with a 38% beat rate indicating potential for recovery.
The options market's implied move suggests traders are bracing for significant volatility, which could indicate a larger-than-expected reaction to the earnings report.
Key risk
If EPS comes in below $1.69, it could invalidate the potential for a recovery narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as Saia seeks to regain investor confidence after several earnings misses.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.90 or higher would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.69 would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.48%
Historical Avg
±9.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±12.5% while SAIA has averaged ±9.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
37.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
107.15%
of float
Insider
0.15%
of float
Holders
690
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
2,545,731 sh · $852.1M
9.54%
6.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Saia beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.39%, confirming a positive turnaround.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 13.21%, reinforcing concerns about the company's profitability.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Alliancebernstein L.P.
2,226,821 sh · $745.4M
8.35%
-10.9%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
2,137,033 sh · $715.3M
8.01%
-7.9%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,203,860 sh · $403.0M
4.51%
0.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
1,106,068 sh · $370.2M
4.15%
0.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.