Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$3.51
EPS est.
$3.34
EPS surprise
+5.06%
1-day move
-11.11%
Saia, Inc. is a major player in the cargo ground transportation sector, providing regional and national freight services across the United States. With a market cap of $10 billion, the company is influenced by trends in consumer spending and supply chain dynamics, making its performance relevant to investors interested in the industrials sector.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Saia reported an EPS of $1.86, slightly beating estimates and resulting in a 6.35% increase in stock price the following day. The company continues to navigate a challenging economic environment while maintaining profitability.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-1.70%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.96%
Analysts expect Saia to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $3.35. There is cautious optimism regarding revenue growth amidst ongoing supply chain challenges.
Bull case
If Saia exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or shows signs of declining revenue, it could raise concerns about its market position and operational challenges, leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$3.35EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Saia is managing costs and generating revenue.
Revenue
$942MRevenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for Saia's services and its market position.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Saia achieve an EPS of $3.35 or better?
This figure is crucial as it directly impacts investor confidence and market perception of the company's profitability.
Q2
What are the revenue figures relative to the $942M consensus?
Revenue performance will indicate the demand for Saia's services and its ability to navigate supply chain challenges.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±7.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Saia's ability to capitalize on increased freight demand, especially given recent operational improvements.
Supporting evidence
The last quarter showed a positive surprise, indicating better-than-expected management performance.
Options pricing suggests a lower expected move compared to historical averages, indicating potential undervaluation.
Saia's commitment to operational efficiency could lead to better margins than anticipated.
Key risk
If EPS comes in below $3.23, it could significantly undermine confidence in Saia's growth prospects.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching Saia's ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations amid economic pressures.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $3.35 or better would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $3.23 would raise concerns about profitability and market competitiveness.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.74%
Historical Avg
±10.67%
The options market is pricing in a modest move, suggesting that investors expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing a 4.74% move, while the stock has averaged a 10.67% move historically, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
50.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options cheap in Industrials
Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
107.15%
of float
Insider
0.15%
of float
Holders
690
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
2,545,731 sh · $852.1M
9.54%
6.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Saia beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.38%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 11.26%, indicating concerns over profitability and market position.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Alliancebernstein L.P.
2,226,821 sh · $745.4M
8.35%
-10.9%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
2,137,033 sh · $715.3M
8.01%
-7.9%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,203,860 sh · $403.0M
4.51%
0.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
1,106,068 sh · $370.2M
4.15%
0.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.