Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Apr 28, 2026
EPS actual
$0.50
EPS est.
$0.44
EPS surprise
+14.16%
1-day move
-0.62%
Starbucks reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which indicates strong profitability despite not disclosing revenue figures. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.62%, possibly due to the lack of revenue data and future guidance. Investors may be cautious as they await more information on the company's growth trajectory.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.50 | $0.44 | +14.16% |
| Revenue | N/A | $9.2B | N/A |
Management expressed satisfaction with the EPS beat, highlighting ongoing efforts to improve customer experience. However, they did not provide specific guidance for future quarters.
We are pleased with our EPS performance this quarter.
Our focus remains on enhancing customer experience and driving growth.
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is a leading coffeehouse chain known for its specialty coffee and beverages. As a major player in the consumer discretionary sector, it reflects trends in consumer spending and preferences, particularly in the restaurant industry.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Starbucks reported an EPS of $0.56, slightly missing expectations of $0.58. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.59% the following day.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-0.26%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.12%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Starbucks' upcoming earnings, with expectations for steady revenue and EPS growth. However, recent performance has raised concerns about the company's ability to meet these targets.
Bull case
If Starbucks can exceed the EPS estimate of $0.44, it may signal strong customer demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company falls short of expectations again, it could indicate ongoing challenges in the competitive landscape, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
0.44EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
9.2BRevenue growth is crucial for understanding the company's ability to attract and retain customers, especially in a competitive market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Starbucks achieve an EPS of at least $0.44 this quarter?
Meeting or exceeding this EPS target could restore investor confidence after recent misses.
Q2
What commentary will management provide on revenue growth and customer traffic?
Insights into customer trends will be critical for understanding the company's performance in a competitive environment.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the impact of seasonal promotions and new product launches, which could drive higher customer traffic and sales.
Supporting evidence
Starbucks has a history of strong seasonal sales that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Recent marketing campaigns have shown positive early results, suggesting potential upside.
Options pricing indicates a higher-than-average expected move, hinting at greater volatility that could favor a positive surprise.
Key risk
If customer traffic significantly increases, it could lead to revenue exceeding the $9.2B consensus.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows several earnings misses, and investor sentiment is sensitive to any signs of recovery.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.44 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong customer demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.39 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in maintaining profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.02%
Historical Avg
±0.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±6.5% while SBUX has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
34.4%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$155,501.16
1,641 sh
1 insider
Net
$155,501.16
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$155,501.16
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
87.12%
of float
Insider
0.13%
of float
Holders
2,979
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Capital Research Global Investors
109,649,535 sh · $10.3B
9.62%
7.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Starbucks beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.16%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.09%, reinforcing concerns about the company's competitive position.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $94.76
1,641 sh
$155,501.16
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Capital World Investors
91,475,472 sh · $8.6B
8.02%
-11.5%
Blackrock Inc.
83,222,518 sh · $7.8B
7.30%
4.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
74,431,675 sh · $7.0B
6.53%
0.5%
State Street Corporation
49,260,268 sh · $4.6B
4.32%
3.2%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 2, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.