Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.85
EPS est.
$0.66
EPS surprise
+29.38%
1-day move
+1.01%
Starbucks reported a strong earnings per share, exceeding expectations significantly, which contributed to a 1.01% increase in stock price. However, without revenue figures or management commentary, it's challenging to assess the overall performance and future outlook. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS surprise, but the lack of additional context leaves some uncertainty.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.85 | N/A | +29.38% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is a leading coffeehouse chain known for its specialty coffee drinks and a strong global brand presence. Operating in the consumer discretionary sector, Starbucks is influenced by trends in consumer spending and preferences for premium products.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Starbucks reported an EPS of $0.50, surpassing estimates by 14.16%. However, the stock declined slightly the next day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-0.26%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.12%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Starbucks' upcoming earnings, with expectations for steady growth in same-store sales and revenue.
Bull case
If Starbucks can deliver strong same-store sales growth and maintain its pricing power, it could see significant stock appreciation.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports disappointing sales figures or faces rising costs, it may struggle to maintain investor confidence.
Key metrics to watch
Same-Store Sales Growth
5.0%This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing, reflecting customer loyalty and demand.
Total Revenue
$9.5BRevenue growth is crucial for assessing overall business health and expansion efforts.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will same-store sales growth exceed 5.0%?
This figure is critical for demonstrating customer demand and loyalty, which can drive stock performance.
Q2
What are the expectations for revenue growth in the upcoming quarter?
Revenue growth will indicate how well Starbucks is managing costs and expanding its market presence.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Starbucks' ability to drive same-store sales growth due to its strong brand loyalty and innovative product offerings.
Supporting evidence
Recent trends in premium coffee consumption suggest a growing market that Starbucks is well-positioned to capture.
Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, suggesting traders are anticipating significant news.
Starbucks' ongoing expansion into new markets could provide a boost that analysts are not fully accounting for.
Key risk
If same-store sales growth comes in below 4%, it could challenge the optimistic outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Starbucks can sustain its growth trajectory amid rising costs and competitive pressures.
Bull confirmed if
Same-store sales growth of 6% or higher would confirm strong consumer demand.
Bear confirmed if
If same-store sales growth falls below 4%, it could signal weakening customer interest.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.51%
Historical Avg
±0.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±4.5% while SBUX has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
29.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$155,501.16
1,641 sh
1 insider
Net
$155,501.16
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$155,501.16
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
87.12%
of float
Insider
0.13%
of float
Holders
2,979
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Capital Research Global Investors
109,649,535 sh · $10.3B
9.62%
7.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Starbucks beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.75%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await clearer guidance on future growth.
Miss
A miss could result in a decline of approximately 0.14%, reflecting disappointment in growth prospects.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
EPS is a key profitability measure that investors closely watch for signs of financial performance.
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $94.76
1,641 sh
$155,501.16
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Capital World Investors
91,475,472 sh · $8.6B
8.02%
-11.5%
Blackrock Inc.
83,222,518 sh · $7.8B
7.30%
4.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
74,431,675 sh · $7.0B
6.53%
0.5%
State Street Corporation
49,260,268 sh · $4.6B
4.32%
3.2%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 2, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.