Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 21, 2026
EPS actual
$2.01
EPS est.
$1.97
EPS surprise
+2.03%
1-day move
+7.39%
Southern Copper Corporation reported an EPS of $2.01, slightly exceeding expectations, which contributed to a strong stock reaction with a 7.39% increase. However, there was no revenue data provided, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may view the EPS beat positively, but the lack of guidance and revenue details could lead to cautious sentiment moving forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.01 | N/A | +2.03% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) is a major player in the copper industry, focusing on mining and refining copper and other metals. With a market cap of $158 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the materials sector, which is increasingly important due to rising demand for copper in various applications, including renewable energy and electric vehicles.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Southern Copper reported an EPS of $1.92, beating estimates by 8.47%. However, the stock fell 4.28% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the earnings beat.
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+7.48%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.58%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about copper prices and market demand could temper expectations.
Bull case
If Southern Copper continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and robust demand for copper, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the recent volatility in copper prices.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this figure will be crucial in determining market sentiment and stock performance.
Q2
What is the outlook for copper prices and demand in the upcoming quarters?
Copper prices directly impact Southern Copper's revenue and profitability, making this insight vital for understanding future performance.
—
Est. EPS
$0.41
Est. Rev
$318.0B
Impl. Move
±16.8%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Southern Copper to capitalize on rising copper demand, particularly in renewable energy sectors.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational management.
Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant market reactions.
Key risk
If copper prices rebound significantly, it could lead to much higher revenues than currently anticipated.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching how Southern Copper navigates current copper price fluctuations and demand trends.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and likely lead to a positive market reaction.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.70 could signal operational challenges and lead to a negative market response.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.81%
Historical Avg
±3.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.8% while SCCO has averaged ±3.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
49.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials
Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$20,000.00
100 sh
1 insider
Net
$20,000.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
9.82%
of float
Insider
90.06%
of float
Holders
1,177
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
10,043,921 sh · $2.0B
1.20%
4.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Southern Copper beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.39% on the following day, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential drop of around 5.10%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$20,000.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 24, 2026 · @ $200.00
100 sh
$20,000.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Capital World Investors
7,854,819 sh · $1.6B
0.94%
-10.8%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
3,176,590 sh · $637.1M
0.38%
8.6%
State Street Corporation
3,064,912 sh · $614.7M
0.37%
2.9%
Fisher Asset Management, LLC
2,822,889 sh · $566.2M
0.34%
19.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.