Equity Profile

SCCO

Southern Copper Corporation

MaterialsCopper$140.0B

Jul27Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) is a major player in the copper industry, focusing on mining, smelting, and refining copper. As a key material in construction and electronics, copper demand is heavily influenced by global economic trends and infrastructure spending.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

N/A

Copper Prices

Copper prices directly impact revenue and profitability, making it essential to understand market trends leading up to the earnings report.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SCCO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.15%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Southern Copper reported an EPS of $1.92, surpassing estimates by 8.47%. However, the stock dropped 4.28% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Southern Copper's upcoming earnings, given its strong historical performance in beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about fluctuating copper prices and production challenges remain.

Bull Case

If Southern Copper continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and reports strong production numbers, it could see significant stock appreciation as investor confidence grows.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if copper prices have declined or production volumes are lower than expected, the stock could face downward pressure, especially given the recent history of stock declines following earnings.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the production volume for Q2-2026?

Production levels will indicate the company's ability to meet demand and manage operational challenges, which are crucial for revenue.

How have copper prices impacted revenue this quarter?

Understanding the effect of copper prices on revenue will help gauge the company's profitability and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of operational efficiencies and potential cost reductions that Southern Copper could achieve this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests strong management performance.

Recent copper price trends indicate a potential stabilization, which could benefit revenue.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Key Risk

If production volume exceeds 300,000 tons, it could significantly alter revenue expectations and investor sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on production efficiency and copper price stability, both of which are vital for maintaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

Production volume exceeding 300,000 tons would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

A significant drop in copper prices below $3.50 per pound could confirm the bear case, leading to lower revenue projections.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.81%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.8% while SCCO has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (317K)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (545K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.6% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Southern Copper beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.39% on the first day, confirming positive investor sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential drop of around 5.10%, reflecting disappointment in the market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production targets for Q2-2026.
2Insights on how copper price fluctuations have affected revenue this quarter.
3Management's outlook on future copper demand and pricing.
4Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
5Comments on any challenges faced in mining operations.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.

N/A

Copper Prices

Copper prices directly impact revenue and profitability, making it essential to understand market trends leading up to the earnings report.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SCCO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.15%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Southern Copper reported an EPS of $1.92, surpassing estimates by 8.47%. However, the stock dropped 4.28% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Southern Copper continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and reports strong production numbers, it could see significant stock appreciation as investor confidence grows.

Bear Case

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the production volume for Q2-2026?

Production levels will indicate the company's ability to meet demand and manage operational challenges, which are crucial for revenue.

How have copper prices impacted revenue this quarter?

Understanding the effect of copper prices on revenue will help gauge the company's profitability and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of operational efficiencies and potential cost reductions that Southern Copper could achieve this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests strong management performance.

Recent copper price trends indicate a potential stabilization, which could benefit revenue.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.

Key Risk

If production volume exceeds 300,000 tons, it could significantly alter revenue expectations and investor sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on production efficiency and copper price stability, both of which are vital for maintaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

Production volume exceeding 300,000 tons would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

A significant drop in copper prices below $3.50 per pound could confirm the bear case, leading to lower revenue projections.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.81%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.8% while SCCO has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (317K)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (545K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Southern Copper beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.39% on the first day, confirming positive investor sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may remain flat or see a slight decline as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential drop of around 5.10%, reflecting disappointment in the market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production targets for Q2-2026.
2Insights on how copper price fluctuations have affected revenue this quarter.
3Management's outlook on future copper demand and pricing.
4Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
5Comments on any challenges faced in mining operations.