Equity Profile

SCCO

Southern Copper Corporation

MaterialsCopper$145.0B

Jul27Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) is a major player in the copper industry, focusing on mining, refining, and producing copper and other metals. As a significant supplier in the materials sector, its performance is closely tied to global demand for copper, which is essential for various industries, including construction and electronics.

Key Metrics to Watch

Copper Production

This metric indicates the company's ability to meet market demand and can directly impact revenue.

N/A

Copper Prices

Fluctuations in copper prices can significantly affect profit margins and overall financial performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SCCO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.15%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Southern Copper reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.92, exceeding expectations by 8.47%. However, the stock experienced a decline of 4.28% the following day, indicating market caution despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Southern Copper's upcoming earnings, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about copper price volatility and production costs may temper enthusiasm.

Bull Case

If copper prices remain strong and production increases, Southern Copper could report robust earnings, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production costs rise or copper prices fall, the company may struggle to maintain profitability, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the copper production figures for Q2-2026?

Production levels are critical for assessing the company's ability to meet demand and maintain profitability.

How have copper prices impacted operating costs this quarter?

Understanding the relationship between copper prices and operating costs will help gauge the company's profitability and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for Southern Copper to capitalize on rising global demand for copper, particularly in renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors.

Supporting Evidence

Historical performance shows an 88% EPS beat rate, indicating strong operational efficiency.

Options pricing suggests a larger expected move than what has been realized in previous quarters, indicating potential for upside.

Recent trends in global infrastructure spending could drive higher copper demand, which the Street may not fully account for.

Key Risk

If production figures exceed expectations, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the market is debating the impact of copper prices and production efficiency on Southern Copper's financial health.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in copper production alongside stable or rising copper prices would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If production costs rise sharply or copper prices decline, it would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.81%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.8% while SCCO has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (317K)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (545K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Southern Copper beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 0.39%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 5.10%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on copper production targets for Q2-2026.
2Insights into how copper prices have affected operating margins this quarter.
3Any commentary on future copper demand, especially related to renewable energy.
4Management's outlook on cost management strategies.
5Details on any new projects or expansions that could impact future production.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Copper Production

This metric indicates the company's ability to meet market demand and can directly impact revenue.

N/A

Copper Prices

Fluctuations in copper prices can significantly affect profit margins and overall financial performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SCCO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.15%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.30%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If copper prices remain strong and production increases, Southern Copper could report robust earnings, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production costs rise or copper prices fall, the company may struggle to maintain profitability, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the copper production figures for Q2-2026?

Production levels are critical for assessing the company's ability to meet demand and maintain profitability.

How have copper prices impacted operating costs this quarter?

Understanding the relationship between copper prices and operating costs will help gauge the company's profitability and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating the potential for Southern Copper to capitalize on rising global demand for copper, particularly in renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors.

Supporting Evidence

Historical performance shows an 88% EPS beat rate, indicating strong operational efficiency.

Options pricing suggests a larger expected move than what has been realized in previous quarters, indicating potential for upside.

Recent trends in global infrastructure spending could drive higher copper demand, which the Street may not fully account for.

Key Risk

If production figures exceed expectations, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the market is debating the impact of copper prices and production efficiency on Southern Copper's financial health.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant increase in copper production alongside stable or rising copper prices would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If production costs rise sharply or copper prices decline, it would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.81%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.8% while SCCO has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

49.9%

Calls (317K)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (545K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Southern Copper beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 0.39%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 5.10%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on copper production targets for Q2-2026.
2Insights into how copper prices have affected operating margins this quarter.
3Any commentary on future copper demand, especially related to renewable energy.
4Management's outlook on cost management strategies.
5Details on any new projects or expansions that could impact future production.