Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, Feb 23, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.16
Est. revenue
$497M
Implied move
±12.4%
EPS beat rate
75%
Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates in the consumer discretionary sector, focusing on casinos and gaming. With a market cap of $7 billion, the company is significant in the gaming industry, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and regulatory changes.
Last quarter
In Q3-2025, Super Group reported an EPS of $0.19, significantly beating expectations of $0.14. However, the stock price fell by 2.27% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+3841.14%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.21%
Analysts expect Super Group to report steady earnings and revenue this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.16 and revenue of $497 million. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or challenges in the gaming sector.
Bull case
If Super Group exceeds expectations, it could signal strong demand in the gaming industry, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction and increased investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations or shows signs of declining revenue, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.16Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
$497MRevenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and growth potential, crucial for assessing market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.16?
This figure is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and could significantly influence investor sentiment.
Q2
What insights can management provide about revenue growth in the gaming sector?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's market position and future growth potential.
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Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
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Impl. Move
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Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus is underestimating the potential for revenue growth due to recent trends in consumer spending that favor entertainment and leisure activities.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a move of 11.18%, suggesting higher volatility than historical averages.
Super Group's previous earnings surprises indicate a pattern of significant performance shifts that could be overlooked.
Key risk
If the company reports revenue growth significantly above $497 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Super Group can maintain its earnings momentum amid changing consumer spending patterns.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.18 or higher would confirm strong earnings momentum and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.14 would indicate potential issues in profitability and could lead to a negative market reaction.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.18%
Historical Avg
±5.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±12.4% while SGHC has averaged ±5.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.5%
30d HV
29.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 8 of 22 (36%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 14 of 22 (64%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 7.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
24.02%
of float
Insider
68.68%
of float
Holders
259
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP
20,114,259 sh · $228.3M
3.98%
23.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Super Group beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of -2.02%, indicating cautious optimism.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react more to management's commentary, leading to a muted response.
Miss
If the company misses earnings expectations, the average one-day move suggests a potential increase of +1.98%, indicating a possible rebound as investors reassess.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Helikon Investments Ltd
17,263,516 sh · $195.9M
3.41%
83.2%
Blackrock Inc.
9,591,719 sh · $108.9M
1.90%
9.6%
Citadel Advisors Llc
5,306,543 sh · $60.2M
1.05%
525.5%
American Century Companies Inc
5,275,160 sh · $59.9M
1.04%
1.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.