Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$3.14
EPS est.
$3.36
EPS surprise
-6.46%
1-day move
-9.36%
SiteOne Landscape Supply reported an EPS of $3.14, which was below expectations, leading to a significant stock decline of 9.36%. The lack of revenue data and guidance may have contributed to investor uncertainty, resulting in the negative stock reaction.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $3.14 | N/A | -6.46% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. is a leading distributor of landscape supplies, serving the green industry across the United States and Canada. The company plays a crucial role in the growing landscaping market, which is influenced by trends in home improvement and outdoor living.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, SiteOne reported an EPS of -$0.60, missing expectations by 33.33%. Following the announcement, the stock dropped by 15.37% the next day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-14.26%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.24%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about SiteOne's upcoming earnings, hoping for signs of recovery after a disappointing last quarter. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty.
Bull case
If SiteOne can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it could signal a rebound in demand and operational efficiency.
Bear case
Conversely, continued losses or weak guidance could raise concerns about the company's ability to navigate market challenges.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the revenue growth rate be for the landscaping supplies segment?
This figure will be critical in assessing the company's recovery trajectory and market demand.
Q2
How is SiteOne managing its operating expenses in the current economic environment?
Effective cost management is essential for improving profitability, especially after a disappointing quarter.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in demand for landscaping supplies, given the recent trends in home improvement.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating heightened expectations.
SiteOne's previous quarter showed a strong surprise in EPS despite a loss, suggesting potential for recovery.
Historical patterns indicate that the stock has often reacted positively to revenue surprises.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could shift the market's perception of SiteOne's recovery potential.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is watching for signs of recovery after a difficult previous quarter, with a focus on revenue and cost management.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth of at least 10% year-over-year would confirm a strong recovery.
Bear confirmed if
Continued losses or a revenue decline would confirm bearish sentiment.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±20.86%
Historical Avg
±7.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±20.9% while SITE has averaged ±7.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
62.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
114.01%
of float
Insider
1.84%
of float
Holders
524
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
4,474,072 sh · $386.4M
10.25%
-0.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If SiteOne beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 6.37%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but lack strong guidance, the stock may see limited movement as investors reassess their outlook.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.46%, further eroding investor confidence.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
59 North Capital Management, LP
2,057,212 sh · $177.7M
4.71%
96.0%
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
2,048,143 sh · $176.9M
4.69%
-17.6%
BAMCO Inc.
2,028,799 sh · $175.2M
4.65%
-1.5%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,004,438 sh · $173.1M
4.59%
-0.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.