Equity Profile

SJM

The J. M. Smucker Company

Consumer StaplesPackaged Foods & Meats$11.8B

Jun9Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The J. M....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$2.64

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to sell its products and is crucial for assessing growth and market demand.

$2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SJM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is a leading player in the consumer staples sector, primarily known for its packaged foods and meats. With a strong portfolio of brands, it plays a crucial role in everyday consumer spending, especially in times of economic uncertainty.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.21%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Smucker reported an EPS of $2.38, exceeding expectations by 5.08%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 8.82% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on cost management to improve margins.
Commitment to innovation in product offerings.
Plans to enhance distribution channels.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Smucker to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $2.64 and revenue of $2.3B. The company has a history of beating earnings estimates.

Bull Case

If Smucker can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

If the company misses earnings expectations or shows signs of declining sales, it could raise concerns about its competitive position and lead to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.64

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$2.3B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to sell its products and is crucial for assessing growth and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.64?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What are the revenue trends compared to the expected $2.3B?

Revenue performance will be critical in assessing overall demand and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Smucker's ability to innovate and manage costs effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Recent positive trends in consumer spending could benefit Smucker's sales more than anticipated.

Key Risk

If the company reports a significant increase in sales volume, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will reveal how well Smucker is navigating market challenges and consumer demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm strong profitability and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.58 would raise concerns about profitability and market competitiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.6%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.6%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while SJM has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (23K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (16K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Smucker beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.75% on the following day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 4.09%, reflecting market disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into consumer demand trends in the packaged foods sector.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Responses to competitive pressures and how they plan to address them.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

The J. M....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$2.64

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to sell its products and is crucial for assessing growth and market demand.

$2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SJM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.21%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Smucker reported an EPS of $2.38, exceeding expectations by 5.08%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 8.82% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on cost management to improve margins.
Commitment to innovation in product offerings.
Plans to enhance distribution channels.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Smucker to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $2.64 and revenue of $2.3B. The company has a history of beating earnings estimates.

Bull Case

If Smucker can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

If the company misses earnings expectations or shows signs of declining sales, it could raise concerns about its competitive position and lead to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.64

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$2.3B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to sell its products and is crucial for assessing growth and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.64?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What are the revenue trends compared to the expected $2.3B?

Revenue performance will be critical in assessing overall demand and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Smucker's ability to innovate and manage costs effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Recent positive trends in consumer spending could benefit Smucker's sales more than anticipated.

Key Risk

If the company reports a significant increase in sales volume, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will reveal how well Smucker is navigating market challenges and consumer demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm strong profitability and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.58 would raise concerns about profitability and market competitiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.6%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.6%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while SJM has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (23K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (16K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Smucker beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.75% on the following day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 4.09%, reflecting market disappointment and concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into consumer demand trends in the packaged foods sector.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Responses to competitive pressures and how they plan to address them.