Equity Profile

SJM

The J. M. Smucker Company

Consumer StaplesPackaged Foods & Meats$12.9B

Jun9Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The J. M....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and driving sales.

$2.64

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Smucker's products.

$2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SJM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is a leading player in the consumer staples sector, specializing in packaged foods and meats. Known for its popular brands like Jif peanut butter and Folgers coffee, Smucker is impacted by consumer spending trends and the rising costs of raw materials.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.21%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Smucker reported an EPS of $2.38, beating estimates by 5.08%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 8.82% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Smucker to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2.64. The company has a history of beating earnings estimates, which could drive positive sentiment.

Bull Case

If Smucker can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate robust demand for its products, leading to a potential stock rally.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate rising costs and competition.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.64

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and driving sales.

Revenue

$2.3B

Total revenue gives insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Smucker's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Smucker's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.64?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's ability to manage costs and drive profitability, which is crucial given recent inflationary pressures.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's outlook in a competitive market and assess demand for its products.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

While analysts expect steady growth, Smucker's unique brand portfolio and pricing power may lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Recent consumer trends indicate a shift towards premium food products, which could benefit Smucker's brand positioning.

Key Risk

If the company reports strong sales growth in its key segments, it could challenge the cautious outlook currently held by analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching how Smucker navigates cost pressures and consumer demand, making these thresholds critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.58 would raise concerns about profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.6%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.6%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while SJM has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (23K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (16K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Smucker beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.75% the following day, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 4.09%, indicating market disappointment in the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on pricing strategies to combat inflation.
2Insights into consumer demand trends for Smucker's key products.
3Management's commentary on supply chain challenges.
4Guidance on future revenue growth and market expansion.
5Details on any new product launches or brand initiatives.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

The J. M....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and driving sales.

$2.64

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Smucker's products.

$2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SJM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.21%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Smucker reported an EPS of $2.38, beating estimates by 5.08%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 8.82% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Smucker to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2.64. The company has a history of beating earnings estimates, which could drive positive sentiment.

Bull Case

If Smucker can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate robust demand for its products, leading to a potential stock rally.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate rising costs and competition.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.64

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and driving sales.

Revenue

$2.3B

Total revenue gives insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Smucker's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Smucker's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.64?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's ability to manage costs and drive profitability, which is crucial given recent inflationary pressures.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's outlook in a competitive market and assess demand for its products.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

While analysts expect steady growth, Smucker's unique brand portfolio and pricing power may lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Recent consumer trends indicate a shift towards premium food products, which could benefit Smucker's brand positioning.

Key Risk

If the company reports strong sales growth in its key segments, it could challenge the cautious outlook currently held by analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching how Smucker navigates cost pressures and consumer demand, making these thresholds critical.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.58 would raise concerns about profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.6%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a move of about 4.6%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while SJM has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (23K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (16K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Smucker beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.75% the following day, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 4.09%, indicating market disappointment in the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on pricing strategies to combat inflation.
2Insights into consumer demand trends for Smucker's key products.
3Management's commentary on supply chain challenges.
4Guidance on future revenue growth and market expansion.
5Details on any new product launches or brand initiatives.