Equity Profile

SJM

The J. M. Smucker Company

Consumer StaplesPackaged Foods & Meats$11.0B

Jun9Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The J. M....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

2.64

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing growth.

2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SJM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is a leading player in the consumer staples sector, primarily known for its packaged foods and meats. With a market cap of $11 billion, it plays a significant role in the grocery sector, producing well-known brands that cater to everyday consumer needs.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.21%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Smucker reported an EPS of $2.38, exceeding expectations by 5.08%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall sales performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Smucker to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2.64. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its positive momentum from the last quarter.

Bull Case

If Smucker beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its market position and consumer demand.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

2.64

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

2.3B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.64?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's profitability and could lead to a positive market reaction.

What are the revenue figures compared to the consensus of $2.3 billion?

Revenue performance will provide insights into consumer demand and the company's growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent product launches and marketing strategies that could drive higher sales than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a smaller move than historical averages, indicating potential for a larger surprise.

Recent consumer trends show increased demand for packaged foods, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $2.3 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will indicate whether Smucker can sustain its growth amidst changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm strong profitability and likely lead to a positive market response.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.58 would raise concerns about the company's financial health and could lead to a negative market reaction.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.6%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 4.6% in either direction following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while SJM has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (23K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (16K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Smucker beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +0.25%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

Should the company miss estimates, history indicates an average one-day decline of -4.09%, signaling potential concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on consumer trends and demand for packaged foods.
3Insights into cost pressures and how they may affect margins.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and any changes in market strategy.
5Responses to competitive pressures in the packaged foods sector.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

The J. M....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

2.64

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing growth.

2.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SJM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.45%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.21%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Smucker reported an EPS of $2.38, exceeding expectations by 5.08%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall sales performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Smucker to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2.64. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its positive momentum from the last quarter.

Bull Case

If Smucker beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its market position and consumer demand.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

2.64

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

2.3B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.64?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's profitability and could lead to a positive market reaction.

What are the revenue figures compared to the consensus of $2.3 billion?

Revenue performance will provide insights into consumer demand and the company's growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent product launches and marketing strategies that could drive higher sales than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a smaller move than historical averages, indicating potential for a larger surprise.

Recent consumer trends show increased demand for packaged foods, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $2.3 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will indicate whether Smucker can sustain its growth amidst changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm strong profitability and likely lead to a positive market response.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.58 would raise concerns about the company's financial health and could lead to a negative market reaction.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.6%

Historical Avg

±6.0%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 4.6% in either direction following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while SJM has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.6%

Calls (23K)P/C Ratio: 0.30Puts (16K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Smucker beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +0.25%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

Should the company miss estimates, history indicates an average one-day decline of -4.09%, signaling potential concerns about future performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Management's commentary on consumer trends and demand for packaged foods.
3Insights into cost pressures and how they may affect margins.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and any changes in market strategy.
5Responses to competitive pressures in the packaged foods sector.