Equity Profile

SMG

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

MaterialsFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals$3.7B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is a leading provider of gardening and lawn care products, including fertilizers and seeds. As a key player in the materials sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending on home and garden improvements, which can fluctuate based on economic conditions.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will show how well the company is expanding its market share and responding to consumer demand.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SMG Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.23%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.89%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2-2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro reported an EPS of $4.53, exceeding expectations by 14.16%. However, the stock dropped 4.53% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving product quality and customer satisfaction.
Commitment to expanding distribution channels.
Plans to enhance marketing efforts to boost brand visibility.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Scotts Miracle-Gro are cautious, with investors looking for signs of recovery in consumer spending and effective cost management.

Bull Case

If the company can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve margins, it could signal a robust recovery and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or shows declining margins, it could lead to further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q3-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and a strong performance could boost investor confidence.

How is the company addressing supply chain challenges and cost management?

Effective management of costs and supply chains is crucial for maintaining margins, especially in a competitive market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Scotts Miracle-Gro to outperform due to its strong brand loyalty and recent product innovations.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating investor anticipation of significant news.

Recent trends in consumer spending on home improvement could favor Scotts Miracle-Gro's product lines.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS above $5.00, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the company's ability to manage costs and grow revenue against potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.00 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.50 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.17%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while SMG has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

42.5%

Calls (47K)P/C Ratio: 0.67Puts (19K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Scotts Miracle-Gro beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.25%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of -8.83%, indicating strong negative sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into consumer trends in the gardening and lawn care market.
4Management's outlook on supply chain stability and pricing pressures.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning in the market.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will show how well the company is expanding its market share and responding to consumer demand.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SMG Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+11.23%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.89%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving product quality and customer satisfaction.
Commitment to expanding distribution channels.
Plans to enhance marketing efforts to boost brand visibility.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Scotts Miracle-Gro are cautious, with investors looking for signs of recovery in consumer spending and effective cost management.

Bull Case

If the company can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve margins, it could signal a robust recovery and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or shows declining margins, it could lead to further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q3-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and a strong performance could boost investor confidence.

How is the company addressing supply chain challenges and cost management?

Effective management of costs and supply chains is crucial for maintaining margins, especially in a competitive market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Scotts Miracle-Gro to outperform due to its strong brand loyalty and recent product innovations.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating investor anticipation of significant news.

Recent trends in consumer spending on home improvement could favor Scotts Miracle-Gro's product lines.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS above $5.00, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the company's ability to manage costs and grow revenue against potential economic headwinds.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $5.00 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.50 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.17%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.2% while SMG has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

42.5%

Calls (47K)P/C Ratio: 0.67Puts (19K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Scotts Miracle-Gro beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.25%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of -8.83%, indicating strong negative sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into consumer trends in the gardening and lawn care market.
4Management's outlook on supply chain stability and pricing pressures.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning in the market.