Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$2.82
EPS est.
$2.53
EPS surprise
+11.37%
1-day move
-3.79%
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is a leading provider of lawn and garden products, including fertilizers and agricultural chemicals. As a key player in the materials sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending on home improvement and gardening, which can be influenced by seasonal trends and economic conditions.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Scotts reported an EPS of $4.53, exceeding estimates by 14.16%. However, the stock fell 4.53% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the earnings beat.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+9.85%
Avg 1-day reaction
-5.86%
Wall Street is anticipating a challenging quarter for Scotts, with expectations of a significant loss in EPS. Analysts are closely watching revenue figures to gauge demand amidst economic pressures.
Bull case
If Scotts can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of strong demand, it could signal a recovery in consumer spending on gardening products, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss than expected and revenue falls short, it may indicate deeper issues in sales performance, leading to further declines in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-2.17Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating revenue.
Revenue
$312MRevenue figures will provide insight into sales performance and demand for Scotts' products, especially during the peak gardening season.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Scotts achieve revenue of at least $312M this quarter?
Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand and could influence market sentiment significantly.
Q2
What specific strategies will management outline to address the expected EPS loss?
Understanding management's approach to mitigating losses will be key for investors assessing the company's future viability.
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Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be overly pessimistic about Scotts' revenue potential this quarter, underestimating seasonal demand for gardening products.
Supporting evidence
The company has historically beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time, suggesting potential for positive surprises.
Recent trends in home improvement spending may indicate stronger consumer interest than currently anticipated.
Key risk
If revenue comes in above $312M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects the company's ability to navigate economic challenges and consumer spending trends.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue exceeding $312M with a smaller-than-expected EPS loss would confirm a recovery in consumer demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss worse than the consensus of $-2.17 and revenue below $303M would signal deeper issues in the business.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.17%
Historical Avg
±6.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility based on the upcoming results.
Options are pricing ±10.2% while SMG has averaged ±6.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
42.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
88.80%
of float
Insider
23.67%
of float
Holders
597
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
4,460,250 sh · $220.3M
7.67%
0.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Scotts beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +2.25%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as management commentary could drive the stock's movement more than the numbers.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests an average one-day decline of -8.83%, indicating significant market disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
FMR, LLC
4,096,622 sh · $202.4M
7.04%
91.3%
Earnest Partners LLC
3,630,876 sh · $179.4M
6.24%
6.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,424,539 sh · $119.8M
4.17%
-3.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,978,656 sh · $97.7M
3.40%
1.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.