Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, May 26, 2026
EPS actual
$0.51
EPS est.
$0.30
EPS surprise
+68.87%
1-day move
+4.90%
Semtech's strong EPS performance, beating expectations significantly, has led to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising 4.9%. However, the lack of revenue data and guidance leaves some uncertainty about future performance. Investors may be encouraged by the earnings surprise but will likely await further details from management.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.51 | $0.45 | +68.87% |
| Revenue | — | $283M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures analog and mixed-signal semiconductors. With a market cap of $14 billion, it plays a crucial role in enabling connectivity for various applications, including IoT, cloud computing, and telecommunications.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Semtech reported an EPS of $0.44, significantly exceeding expectations of $0.27, showcasing strong operational performance. The stock reacted positively, gaining 4.89% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+131.49%
Avg 1-day reaction
+3.80%
Analysts expect Semtech to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, with a consensus EPS of $0.45. There is optimism surrounding revenue growth driven by increased demand for semiconductors in various sectors.
Bull case
If Semtech exceeds EPS expectations and demonstrates strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand for its products, leading to further stock price appreciation.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about market demand and lead to a decline in stock value.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.45Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and investor sentiment.
Revenue
$283MRevenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and meet demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Semtech's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $283M?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market demand.
Q2
Can Semtech maintain or improve its EPS above the consensus of $0.45?
Sustaining or exceeding EPS expectations will bolster investor confidence and support stock performance.
—
Est. EPS
$1.01
Est. Rev
$543M
Impl. Move
±8.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Semtech's ability to capitalize on emerging IoT trends, which could drive higher-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
Semtech has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.
The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate a surprise.
Recent insider selling may indicate a strategic shift rather than a lack of confidence.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly exceeds $283M, it could challenge the current consensus view.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely scrutinized as it will indicate whether Semtech can sustain its growth momentum in a competitive semiconductor market.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving revenue growth above $283M with an EPS of $0.45 or higher would confirm the bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
Falling short of the $283M revenue target or reporting an EPS below $0.45 would signal potential weakness.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±23.76%
Historical Avg
±4.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±23.8% while SMTC has averaged ±4.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.2%
30d HV
71.8%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$555,387.29
2,967 sh
2 insiders
Net
$555,387.29
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
$382,420.00
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Semtech beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.32%, confirming strong demand.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future guidance.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical data indicating a potential drop based on past performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
0 buys·3 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$172,967.29
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $191.21
2,000 sh
$382,420.00
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $178.87
967 sh
$172,967.29
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 21, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 16, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 30, 2026 · disclosed Jul 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.