Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$2.07
EPS est.
$1.60
EPS surprise
+29.38%
1-day move
-1.55%
StoneX Group Inc. reported a strong earnings per share, exceeding expectations significantly. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.55%. This could indicate investor concerns or profit-taking despite the positive EPS surprise.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.07 | N/A | +29.38% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
StoneX Group Inc. operates in the financial sector, focusing on investment banking and brokerage services. With a market cap of $8 billion, the company plays a crucial role in facilitating trading and investment activities for various clients, including institutions and retail investors.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, StoneX reported an EPS of $2.50, exceeding expectations by 21.36%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.77% the following day.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+13.19%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.68%
Overall, expectations for StoneX are mixed as the company has shown a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, but revenue guidance remains unclear.
Bull case
If StoneX continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and client demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining client activity, it could lead to a negative market reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?
Given the company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates, this number will be critical in shaping investor sentiment.
Q2
How has client activity changed in the last quarter?
Understanding client activity levels will provide insight into future revenue potential and overall business health.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent client activity trends, which could lead to stronger-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
StoneX has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility that may not align with current consensus.
Key risk
If client activity shows unexpected strength, it could lead to a significant upward revision of earnings expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching EPS and client activity as indicators of StoneX's operational strength and future growth.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.20 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with client demand.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.01%
Historical Avg
±1.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±6.5% while SNEX has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
31.9%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$3.7M
56,250 sh
1 insider
Net
$3.7M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$3.7M
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If StoneX beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.57%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors weigh management commentary.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about -0.47%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Sep 28, 2026 · @ $65.69
56,250 sh
$3.7M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.