Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Mon, Nov 23, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±18.7%
EPS beat rate
75%
StoneX Group Inc. operates in the financial sector, focusing on investment banking and brokerage services. With a market cap of $7 billion, the company plays a significant role in facilitating transactions and providing market access for clients, which is crucial in a dynamic financial landscape.
Last quarter
In Q3-2026, StoneX reported an EPS of $1.00, exceeding expectations by 31.58%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the following day.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+13.19%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.68%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, especially given the company's recent performance and surprises in previous quarters.
Bull case
If StoneX continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiencies and client growth, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining revenue or client retention, it could lead to a negative market reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter?
Given the company's recent performance, the EPS figure will be crucial in determining if they can maintain their upward trajectory.
Q2
How has client retention changed compared to previous quarters?
Client retention is a key indicator of future revenue stability, and any decline could signal potential issues.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±18.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the impact of recent client acquisition strategies that could significantly boost revenue this quarter.
Supporting evidence
StoneX has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the last three quarters, indicating strong operational performance.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant news.
Insider selling could indicate confidence in the company's future performance despite market volatility.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in above $1.20, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of growth expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching profitability and client retention as indicators of future growth.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.20 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating continued profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.80 would confirm the bear case, suggesting operational challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±18.67%
Historical Avg
±1.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±18.7% while SNEX has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
35.2%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$3.7M
56,250 sh
1 insider
Net
$3.7M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$3.7M
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If StoneX beats expectations, history suggests a stock increase of around 1.06%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess future growth.
Miss
Should the company miss estimates, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.47%, raising concerns about operational efficiency.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Sep 28, 2026 · @ $65.69
56,250 sh
$3.7M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.