Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, May 11, 2026
EPS actual
$2.91
EPS est.
$2.98
EPS surprise
-2.25%
1-day move
-0.55%
Simon Property Group's earnings report showed a significant earnings per share beat, but the stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.55%. The lack of revenue data and guidance may have contributed to investor uncertainty. Overall, the results indicate a mixed performance that could raise questions about future growth prospects.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.91 | $1.49 | -2.25% |
| Revenue | N/A | $1.5B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) is a leading retail real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates shopping malls and premium outlets. With a market cap of $66 billion, it plays a significant role in the retail sector, which is currently navigating challenges and opportunities related to consumer spending and e-commerce growth.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Simon Property Group reported an EPS of $3.27, falling short of expectations by 5.85%. The stock saw a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-0.81%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.63%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Simon Property Group's upcoming earnings, with expectations for EPS of $1.49 and revenue of $1.5 billion. The company has a mixed earnings history, which adds uncertainty to the outlook.
Bull case
If SPG can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a rebound in consumer spending and increased foot traffic at its properties.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses its earnings targets again, it could raise concerns about the sustainability of its business model amid ongoing retail challenges.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
1.49Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.
Revenue
1.5BTotal revenue reflects the company's ability to attract shoppers and tenants, which is crucial for its business model.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will SPG's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $1.49?
This figure will be critical in assessing the company's profitability and ability to manage costs effectively.
Q2
What insights will management provide regarding foot traffic and tenant performance?
Understanding these metrics will help gauge the health of the retail environment and SPG's operational success.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±4.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for SPG to rebound due to improved consumer sentiment and increased foot traffic in malls.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 4.4% move, suggesting expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.
The recent trend of positive surprises in EPS could indicate a shift in operational efficiency.
Key risk
If foot traffic data shows significant improvement, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The upcoming earnings report is pivotal as it will reflect how well SPG is navigating the evolving retail landscape.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.55 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.32 would raise significant concerns about the company's ability to adapt to market challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.4%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 4.4%, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±3.7% while SPG has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
19.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Real Estate
Fade rate: 13 of 26 (50%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Real Estate in the last 2 years. 13 of 26 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.9%, with a raw directional average of +1.1% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$460,716.16
2,272 sh
11 insiders
Sold
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Net
$460,716.16
Net buying
Most Active Insiders· 11 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
96.09%
of float
Insider
1.80%
of float
Holders
1,862
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
37,269,192 sh · $7.4B
11.52%
1.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If SPG beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.89%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management's commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.54%, indicating continued concerns about the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$97,334.40
Net buying
$74,420.26
Net buying
$70,973.00
Net buying
$47,044.96
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $202.78
480 sh
$97,334.40
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $202.78
367 sh
$74,420.26
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $202.78
350 sh
$70,973.00
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $202.78
232 sh
$47,044.96
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $202.78
222 sh
$45,017.16
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
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13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.