Real Estate·Retail REITs·$65.3B
Simon Property Group Inc. is a leading retail real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates shopping malls and premium outlets across the United States and internationally....
EPS
Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its properties, which is crucial for a REIT.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
50%
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.01%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.72%
In Q4 2025, Simon Property Group reported an EPS of $3.27, which was below analyst expectations of $3.47, resulting in a slight stock decline. Revenue figures were not disclosed, but the stock reacted minimally the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Simon Property Group to report a modest EPS of $1.49 and revenue of $1.5 billion for Q1 2026. The market is watching closely for any signs of recovery in consumer spending and retail traffic.
Bull Case
If the company exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate a robust recovery in retail, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or reports weak revenue, it may signal ongoing challenges in the retail sector, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.
EPS
1.49Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
1.5BTotal revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its properties, which is crucial for a REIT.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.49?
A beat on EPS could indicate stronger than expected profitability and consumer demand, which would be a positive signal for the stock.
Q2
What trends in consumer traffic and spending are observed in the quarter?
Understanding consumer behavior is crucial for assessing the health of the retail sector and Simon's performance.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the rebound in consumer spending as retail traffic has shown signs of improvement in recent months.
Supporting Evidence
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant volatility.
Recent retail sales data indicates a stronger consumer sentiment than reflected in current estimates.
Key Risk
If consumer traffic data shows a significant increase, it could challenge the bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it may reflect broader trends in consumer spending and retail recovery.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $1.60 or higher would confirm strong profitability and consumer demand.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $1.32 would signal ongoing challenges in the retail environment.
Implied Move
±7.21%
Historical Avg
±1.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 7%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.2% while SPG has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Simon beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.89%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await further commentary.
Miss
Should the company miss estimates, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.54%, indicating market disappointment.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
ENBRIDGE INC
May 8, 2026