Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±2.1%
EPS beat rate
38%
Est. EPS
$1.98
Est. Rev
$113.6B
Impl. Move
±4.0%
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) is a leading retail real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates shopping malls and premium outlets across the United States and internationally. As consumer spending patterns evolve, the performance of retail properties is closely tied to broader economic trends, making SPG a key player in the retail real estate sector.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Simon Property Group reported an EPS of $3.12, slightly below the estimate of $3.18, resulting in a minor stock decline. The company continues to navigate a challenging retail environment with mixed results in occupancy and sales growth.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-0.81%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.63%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Simon Property Group's upcoming earnings, with expectations for steady occupancy and sales growth despite recent misses. Investors will be closely watching how the company addresses ongoing retail challenges.
Bull case
If SPG can demonstrate strong same-store sales growth and maintain high occupancy rates, it could signal a robust recovery in consumer spending, leading to positive stock momentum.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected occupancy or sales growth, it may raise concerns about the sustainability of its revenue, potentially leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$3.12Earnings per share (EPS) is a critical indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its operations amid changing consumer behaviors.
Occupancy Rate
92%The occupancy rate reflects the demand for retail space and can indicate the health of the retail sector, impacting revenue.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the occupancy rate exceed 92% this quarter?
A higher occupancy rate would indicate strong demand for retail space, which is critical for revenue growth and investor confidence.
Q2
What is the same-store sales growth figure for this quarter?
This metric will provide insight into consumer spending trends and the effectiveness of SPG's tenant mix and marketing strategies.
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may underestimate the resilience of SPG's portfolio, particularly in high-demand areas where consumer spending is rebounding more strongly than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Insider buying activity suggests confidence in SPG's future performance despite recent earnings misses.
The options market is pricing in a move that may not fully reflect the potential for positive surprises in occupancy and sales growth.
Key risk
If occupancy rates exceed 92% and same-store sales growth is positive, it could challenge the prevailing cautious sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on how well SPG can adapt to changing consumer behaviors and maintain its property appeal.
Bull confirmed if
Occupancy rate above 92% and same-store sales growth of 3% or better would confirm the bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
Occupancy rate below 90% or negative same-store sales growth would confirm the bearish outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±2.09%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a modest move of around 2.09%, suggesting that investors expect some volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±2.1% while SPG has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
15.2%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$460,716.16
2,272 sh
11 insiders
Sold
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Net
$460,716.16
Net buying
Most Active Insiders· 11 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
96.09%
of float
Insider
1.80%
of float
Holders
1,862
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
37,269,192 sh · $7.4B
11.52%
1.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If SPG beats expectations with strong occupancy and sales growth, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.84%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty in the retail sector.
Miss
A miss on key metrics could lead to a decline of about 0.51%, as investors reassess the company's growth prospects.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Same-Store Sales Growth
3%This metric shows how existing properties are performing and is crucial for understanding consumer spending trends.
$97,334.40
Net buying
$74,420.26
Net buying
$70,973.00
Net buying
$47,044.96
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $202.78
480 sh
$97,334.40
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $202.78
367 sh
$74,420.26
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $202.78
350 sh
$70,973.00
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $202.78
232 sh
$47,044.96
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $202.78
222 sh
$45,017.16
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
27,878,674 sh · $5.5B
8.62%
20.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
20,632,222 sh · $4.1B
6.38%
0.3%
State Street Corporation
20,356,570 sh · $4.0B
6.29%
-2.8%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
11,335,910 sh · $2.2B
3.50%
4.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Apr 20, 2026 · disclosed May 27, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.