Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Fri, Mar 5, 2021
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±13.3%
EPS beat rate
0%
Stellantis N.V. is a major player in the automobile manufacturing sector, formed from the merger of Fiat Chrysler and PSA Group. With a market cap of $13 billion, the company is focused on producing a wide range of vehicles, including electric and hybrid models, amidst growing consumer demand for sustainable transportation options.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Stellantis reported disappointing earnings, missing analyst expectations significantly. The stock reacted negatively, reflecting investor concerns about the company's performance.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
0%
Avg EPS surprise
-66.45%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.50%
Overall, Wall Street is cautious about Stellantis's upcoming earnings report, especially given the recent earnings miss. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in vehicle sales and revenue growth.
Bull case
If Stellantis can demonstrate strong vehicle sales and a solid strategy for electric vehicle production, it could lead to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or fails to provide a clear path for growth, the stock may face further declines.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What are the vehicle sales figures for the quarter?
Sales figures will provide insight into demand and the company's market position, which is critical for future revenue.
Q2
How is Stellantis addressing the shift towards electric vehicles?
The company's strategy for electric vehicles will be crucial for its competitiveness and growth in a rapidly changing market.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Stellantis's potential for recovery in vehicle sales, particularly in the electric segment, which could surprise investors.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating uncertainty that could lead to an unexpected outcome.
Stellantis has a diverse portfolio that may perform better than anticipated in a recovering market.
Key risk
If vehicle sales exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around Stellantis's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions.
Bull confirmed if
A significant increase in vehicle sales volume, particularly in electric vehicles, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A continued decline in sales or lack of a clear electric vehicle strategy would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of approximately 13.3%, indicating uncertainty surrounding the earnings report.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
42.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss setup in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of -0.7% (modestly negative historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Stellantis beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.5%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors await more concrete guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.5%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
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Est. EPS
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Est. Rev
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Impl. Move
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