Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$0.31
EPS est.
$0.26
EPS surprise
+19.23%
1-day move
-18.67%
STMicroelectronics reported earnings that beat expectations on EPS, but the stock fell significantly by 18.67% following the announcement. The lack of revenue information and guidance may have contributed to investor uncertainty, leading to the sharp decline in stock price. Overall, the market reaction suggests that investors were looking for more comprehensive insights from the company.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.31 | N/A | +19.23% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) is a global semiconductor company that designs and manufactures a wide range of electronic components. As a key player in the Information Technology sector, STM is vital for industries such as automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics, especially with the growing demand for smart devices and AI technologies.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, STM reported an EPS of $0.13, which was significantly lower than the expected $0.19, leading to a 10.81% increase in stock price the following day. This marked a continuation of mixed earnings results in recent quarters.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-4.35%
Avg 1-day reaction
-5.74%
Overall, expectations for STM's upcoming earnings report are cautious, given the recent earnings misses and volatility in the semiconductor market. Investors are looking for signs of recovery and growth.
Bull case
If STM can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it could signal a rebound in demand for semiconductors, particularly in automotive and AI applications.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor confidence.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the EPS figure for Q2-2026?
The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether STM can recover from recent earnings misses and regain investor confidence.
Q2
How does STM plan to address recent revenue growth challenges?
Understanding STM's strategy for revenue growth will be key to assessing its future performance and market position.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating STM's potential for recovery in the semiconductor market, particularly in automotive and AI sectors, where demand is increasing.
Supporting evidence
STM's historical EPS surprises show a pattern of recovery following misses, indicating potential for positive surprises this quarter.
Options pricing suggests a significant expected move, which may reflect underlying bullish sentiment not captured in current consensus.
Key risk
If STM can report an EPS above $0.20, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around STM's ability to rebound from previous earnings misses and demonstrate solid revenue growth.
Bull confirmed if
A reported EPS of $0.20 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case and suggest ongoing challenges in the semiconductor market.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±16.59%
Historical Avg
±10.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 16.6%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±16.6% while STM has averaged ±10.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
58.6%
Cross-company pattern from 28 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 9 of 28 (32%)
This setup has occurred 28 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 19 of 28 (68%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 8.2%, with a raw directional average of +3.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
19.27%
of float
Insider
0.24%
of float
Holders
728
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Van Eck Associates Corporation
14,039,476 sh · $788.7M
1.54%
20.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If STM beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 10%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await clearer guidance on future growth.
Miss
A miss could result in a decline of about 3.6%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Situational Awareness LP
7,802,700 sh · $438.4M
0.86%
100.0%
Blackrock Inc.
6,549,709 sh · $368.0M
0.72%
32.9%
Morgan Stanley
6,390,403 sh · $359.0M
0.70%
19.5%
WT Asset Management Ltd
5,755,892 sh · $323.4M
0.63%
100.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.