Equity Profile

STWD

Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$6.3B

May8Fri

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

Starwood Property Trust Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.39	$0.42	-1.27%
Revenue	—	$471M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Starwood Property Trust Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.39	$0.42	-1.27%
Revenue	—	$471M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

Starwood Property Trust's earnings report showed a miss on EPS compared to expectations, but the stock did not react, remaining unchanged. The lack of revenue data and guidance may leave investors cautious as they await further details. The market's neutral reaction suggests that investors may have already priced in some of the uncertainties surrounding the company's performance.

Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on investing in and managing a diversified portfolio of real estate-related assets....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

0.42

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's operational performance and demand for its services.

471M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on investing in and managing a diversified portfolio of real estate-related assets. With a market cap of $7 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in real estate financing, which is essential for economic growth and stability.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q4-2025), Starwood reported an EPS of $0.42, surpassing expectations by 13.51%. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting Starwood to report an EPS of $0.42 and revenue of $471 million for Q1-2026. The market is closely watching these figures to gauge the company's growth trajectory.

Bull Case

If Starwood exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its mortgage products, leading to positive investor sentiment.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS or revenue targets, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate the current economic environment, potentially leading to a decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.42

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

471M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's operational performance and demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $0.42, indicating continued profitability?

A strong EPS could reinforce confidence in the company's financial health and growth potential.

What will the revenue figure be, and how does it compare to the consensus of $471 million?

Revenue performance will be critical in assessing the demand for Starwood's mortgage products and overall business stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Starwood's ability to adapt to changing market conditions, especially if it reports strong demand for its mortgage products despite economic headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

Starwood has consistently beaten EPS expectations in 75% of the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, suggesting that significant upside potential may be overlooked.

Key Risk

If revenue significantly exceeds $471 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it will help determine the company's ability to maintain profitability amidst economic fluctuations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.44 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial stability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±1.9%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 1.9% in either direction following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±1.9% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.4%

Calls (36K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (35K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 3 of 30 (10%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.0%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.15%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.99%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the demand for mortgage products and how it may impact revenue.
2Insights into the company's strategy for navigating economic challenges.
3Management's outlook on interest rates and their effect on profitability.
4Details on any new investments or acquisitions that could enhance growth.
5Comments on operational efficiencies and cost management efforts.

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Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on investing in and managing a diversified portfolio of real estate-related assets....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

0.42

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's operational performance and demand for its services.

471M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q4-2025), Starwood reported an EPS of $0.42, surpassing expectations by 13.51%. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting Starwood to report an EPS of $0.42 and revenue of $471 million for Q1-2026. The market is closely watching these figures to gauge the company's growth trajectory.

Bull Case

If Starwood exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its mortgage products, leading to positive investor sentiment.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS or revenue targets, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate the current economic environment, potentially leading to a decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.42

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

471M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's operational performance and demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $0.42, indicating continued profitability?

A strong EPS could reinforce confidence in the company's financial health and growth potential.

What will the revenue figure be, and how does it compare to the consensus of $471 million?

Revenue performance will be critical in assessing the demand for Starwood's mortgage products and overall business stability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Starwood's ability to adapt to changing market conditions, especially if it reports strong demand for its mortgage products despite economic headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

Starwood has consistently beaten EPS expectations in 75% of the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, suggesting that significant upside potential may be overlooked.

Key Risk

If revenue significantly exceeds $471 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it will help determine the company's ability to maintain profitability amidst economic fluctuations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.44 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.40 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial stability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±1.9%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a move of approximately 1.9% in either direction following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±1.9% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.4%

Calls (36K)P/C Ratio: 0.11Puts (35K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 3 of 30 (10%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.0%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.15%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.99%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the demand for mortgage products and how it may impact revenue.
2Insights into the company's strategy for navigating economic challenges.
3Management's outlook on interest rates and their effect on profitability.
4Details on any new investments or acquisitions that could enhance growth.
5Comments on operational efficiencies and cost management efforts.