Equity Profile

STX

Seagate Technology Holdings plc

Information TechnologyTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals$195.3B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is a leading provider of data storage solutions, specializing in hard drives and storage systems. As the demand for data storage continues to grow, driven by trends like cloud computing and digital content creation, Seagate plays a crucial role in the information technology sector.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Expected to be around $4.10

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and meet customer demand.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STX Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+29.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.20%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Seagate reported an EPS of $4.10, significantly beating expectations by 25.96%. However, the stock experienced a decline of 2.82% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding product offerings in data storage solutions.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency.
Plans to enhance customer service and support.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about Seagate's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about revenue growth and market competition may temper enthusiasm.

Bull Case

If Seagate continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could lead to a significant upward movement in the stock price.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $4.10

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

Not available

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and meet customer demand.

Gross Margin

Not available

Gross margin indicates how efficiently the company is producing its products and can signal pricing power.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q4-2026?

Given Seagate's strong history of EPS surprises, the market will closely watch this number to gauge ongoing profitability.

How does management view revenue growth in the current market environment?

Insights into revenue growth will be critical for assessing the company's ability to compete and expand in a rapidly changing technology landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of Seagate's new product launches, which could drive higher-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Seagate has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent trends in data storage demand may not be fully reflected in analyst models.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Seagate can sustain its earnings momentum amidst competitive pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.10 or higher with strong revenue growth would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.50 or weak revenue guidance would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.8%

Historical Avg

±2.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.8% while STX has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

57.9%

Calls (949K)P/C Ratio: 1.84Puts (613K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Seagate beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.20%, confirming the company's strong performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest the implications.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average one-day move of -3.18% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on market competition and pricing strategies.
3Insights into customer demand trends in the data storage sector.
4Guidance on future earnings and revenue expectations.
5Any commentary on operational efficiency improvements.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Expected to be around $4.10

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and meet customer demand.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STX Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+29.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.20%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding product offerings in data storage solutions.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency.
Plans to enhance customer service and support.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Seagate continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could lead to a significant upward movement in the stock price.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $4.10

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

Not available

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market share and meet customer demand.

Gross Margin

Not available

Gross margin indicates how efficiently the company is producing its products and can signal pricing power.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for Q4-2026?

Given Seagate's strong history of EPS surprises, the market will closely watch this number to gauge ongoing profitability.

How does management view revenue growth in the current market environment?

Insights into revenue growth will be critical for assessing the company's ability to compete and expand in a rapidly changing technology landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of Seagate's new product launches, which could drive higher-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Seagate has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent trends in data storage demand may not be fully reflected in analyst models.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Seagate can sustain its earnings momentum amidst competitive pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $4.10 or higher with strong revenue growth would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $3.50 or weak revenue guidance would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.8%

Historical Avg

±2.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.8% while STX has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

57.9%

Calls (949K)P/C Ratio: 1.84Puts (613K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Seagate beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.20%, confirming the company's strong performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest the implications.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average one-day move of -3.18% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on market competition and pricing strategies.
3Insights into customer demand trends in the data storage sector.
4Guidance on future earnings and revenue expectations.
5Any commentary on operational efficiency improvements.