Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 28, 2026
EPS actual
$5.71
EPS est.
$4.89
EPS surprise
+16.72%
1-day move
-8.53%
Seagate Technology reported a strong earnings per share figure, beating expectations by a notable margin. However, the stock fell by 8.5% in reaction, indicating that investors may have been disappointed by other aspects of the report or future outlook. The lack of revenue data and management commentary may have contributed to the stock's decline.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $5.71 | N/A | +16.72% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is a leading provider of data storage solutions, specializing in hard drives and storage devices. As digital data continues to grow rapidly, Seagate plays a crucial role in the Information Technology sector by enabling businesses and consumers to store and manage their information effectively.
Last quarter
In Q3-2026, Seagate reported an EPS of $4.10, significantly beating expectations of $3.25. However, the stock price fell 2.82% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the strong earnings.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+21.69%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.76%
Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Seagate's upcoming earnings, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of revenue guidance raises concerns about future growth.
Bull case
If Seagate continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
On the other hand, if revenue growth does not meet expectations, it could raise doubts about the company's ability to sustain profitability in a competitive landscape.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the revenue growth rate be for the upcoming quarter?
Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to capitalize on market demand and maintain profitability.
Q2
Will management provide any guidance on future demand for storage solutions?
Guidance on future demand will help investors gauge the company's growth prospects and overall market position.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Seagate's ability to drive revenue growth due to its strong market position and innovative product offerings.
Supporting evidence
Seagate has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect a notable reaction to the earnings report.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds 10%, it could challenge the current cautious outlook and shift investor sentiment positively.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Seagate can demonstrate sustained demand for its storage solutions in a competitive market.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue growth rate of at least 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
If revenue growth falls below 5%, it would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±15.8%
Historical Avg
±3.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±15.8% while STX has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.9%
30d HV
57.9%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$27.7M
30,000 sh
1 insider
Net
$27.7M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 44 open-market trades
$27.7M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.55%
of float
Insider
0.30%
of float
Holders
2,586
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
15,166,793 sh · $12.2B
6.67%
6.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Seagate beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 0.20%, confirming the company's operational strength.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess growth prospects.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 2.08%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
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1,665 sh
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1,320 sh
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1,146 sh
$1.0M
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$999,953.21
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Vanguard Capital Management LLC
14,630,067 sh · $11.8B
6.43%
3.4%
State Street Corporation
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4.36%
6.3%
FMR, LLC
8,153,134 sh · $6.6B
3.59%
-0.3%
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7,999,686 sh · $6.5B
3.52%
-27.9%
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Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 15, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
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