Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, May 5, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.04
EPS est.
$0.14
EPS surprise
-128.57%
1-day move
+1.15%
Supernus Pharmaceuticals reported a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about the company's financial health. Despite this, the stock saw a slight increase of 1.15%, indicating that some investors may be looking past the earnings miss. The lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves uncertainty about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.04 | $0.28 | -128.57% |
| Revenue | — | $193M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on developing and commercializing innovative treatments for central nervous system diseases. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in addressing unmet medical needs in neurology and psychiatry.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Supernus reported an EPS of -$0.07, significantly missing the estimate of $0.14. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.15% the next day despite the disappointing results.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-137.83%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.96%
Analysts expect Supernus to report an EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $193 million for Q1 2026. The market is watching closely for any signs of recovery after a series of earnings misses.
Bull case
If Supernus meets or exceeds the EPS estimate, it could signal a turnaround in profitability, boosting investor confidence and potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
A continued trend of missing earnings expectations could raise concerns about the company's financial health and lead to further declines in stock value.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.28Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
193MTotal revenue reflects the company's ability to sell its products and grow its market presence, which is crucial for future investments.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Supernus achieve an EPS of at least $0.28 this quarter?
This number is critical as it will indicate whether the company is on a path to recovery after recent earnings misses.
Q2
What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to the $193 million consensus?
Revenue growth is essential for the company's long-term viability and will influence investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Supernus's potential for recovery, as recent product launches could drive unexpected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 12.2% move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility, which could indicate underlying opportunities.
Despite recent misses, the stock has shown resilience with positive reactions post-earnings, indicating investor willingness to support the stock.
The historical trend shows that Supernus has the potential to surprise on the upside, particularly if new products gain traction.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS below $0.27, it could validate bearish sentiments and lead to a sell-off.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results are pivotal as they will determine if Supernus can regain investor confidence after a series of disappointing earnings.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.28 or better would confirm a positive trend in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.27 would reinforce concerns about the company's financial stability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.20%
Historical Avg
±2.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty or potential volatility.
Options are pricing ±13.0% while SUPN has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
30.3%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
106.24%
of float
Insider
4.32%
of float
Holders
454
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
9,350,046 sh · $402.5M
16.06%
6.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Supernus beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.1%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 1.7%, reinforcing negative sentiment around the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Millennium Management Llc
3,853,212 sh · $165.9M
6.62%
16.2%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,305,429 sh · $142.3M
5.68%
2.1%
Armistice Capital, LLC
2,646,201 sh · $113.9M
4.54%
39.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,516,721 sh · $108.3M
4.32%
2.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.