Equity Profile

SUPN

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Health CarePharmaceuticals$2.7B

May5Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:05 PM EDT

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Misses on EPS, Stock Up 1.15%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.04	$0.28	-128.57%
Revenue	—	$193M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Misses on EPS, Stock Up 1.15%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.04	$0.28	-128.57%
Revenue	—	$193M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

Supernus Pharmaceuticals reported a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about the company's financial health. Despite this, the stock saw a slight increase of 1.15%, indicating that some investors may be looking past the earnings miss. The lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves uncertainty about future performance.

Company Snapshot

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on developing and commercializing innovative treatments for central nervous system diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

0.28

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to sell its products and grow its market presence, which is crucial for future investments.

193M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on developing and commercializing innovative treatments for central nervous system diseases. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in addressing unmet medical needs in neurology and psychiatry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-78.10%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.56%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Supernus reported an EPS of -$0.07, significantly missing the estimate of $0.14. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.15% the next day despite the disappointing results.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Supernus to report an EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $193 million for Q1 2026. The market is watching closely for any signs of recovery after a series of earnings misses.

Bull Case

If Supernus meets or exceeds the EPS estimate, it could signal a turnaround in profitability, boosting investor confidence and potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

A continued trend of missing earnings expectations could raise concerns about the company's financial health and lead to further declines in stock value.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.28

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

193M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to sell its products and grow its market presence, which is crucial for future investments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Supernus achieve an EPS of at least $0.28 this quarter?

This number is critical as it will indicate whether the company is on a path to recovery after recent earnings misses.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to the $193 million consensus?

Revenue growth is essential for the company's long-term viability and will influence investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Supernus's potential for recovery, as recent product launches could drive unexpected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 12.2% move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility, which could indicate underlying opportunities.

Despite recent misses, the stock has shown resilience with positive reactions post-earnings, indicating investor willingness to support the stock.

The historical trend shows that Supernus has the potential to surprise on the upside, particularly if new products gain traction.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS below $0.27, it could validate bearish sentiments and lead to a sell-off.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal as they will determine if Supernus can regain investor confidence after a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.28 or better would confirm a positive trend in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.27 would reinforce concerns about the company's financial stability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.20%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty or potential volatility.

Options are pricing ±13.0% while SUPN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

30.3%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.75Puts (8K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Supernus beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.1%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 1.7%, reinforcing negative sentiment around the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into market demand for Supernus's existing products.
4Guidance on future earnings and revenue expectations.
5Any strategic partnerships or collaborations that may influence growth.

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Company Snapshot

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on developing and commercializing innovative treatments for central nervous system diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

0.28

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to sell its products and grow its market presence, which is crucial for future investments.

193M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-78.10%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.56%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Supernus reported an EPS of -$0.07, significantly missing the estimate of $0.14. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.15% the next day despite the disappointing results.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Supernus to report an EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $193 million for Q1 2026. The market is watching closely for any signs of recovery after a series of earnings misses.

Bull Case

If Supernus meets or exceeds the EPS estimate, it could signal a turnaround in profitability, boosting investor confidence and potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

A continued trend of missing earnings expectations could raise concerns about the company's financial health and lead to further declines in stock value.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.28

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

193M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to sell its products and grow its market presence, which is crucial for future investments.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Supernus achieve an EPS of at least $0.28 this quarter?

This number is critical as it will indicate whether the company is on a path to recovery after recent earnings misses.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to the $193 million consensus?

Revenue growth is essential for the company's long-term viability and will influence investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Supernus's potential for recovery, as recent product launches could drive unexpected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 12.2% move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility, which could indicate underlying opportunities.

Despite recent misses, the stock has shown resilience with positive reactions post-earnings, indicating investor willingness to support the stock.

The historical trend shows that Supernus has the potential to surprise on the upside, particularly if new products gain traction.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS below $0.27, it could validate bearish sentiments and lead to a sell-off.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal as they will determine if Supernus can regain investor confidence after a series of disappointing earnings.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.28 or better would confirm a positive trend in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.27 would reinforce concerns about the company's financial stability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.20%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty or potential volatility.

Options are pricing ±13.0% while SUPN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

30.3%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.75Puts (8K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Supernus beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.1%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of around 1.7%, reinforcing negative sentiment around the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into market demand for Supernus's existing products.
4Guidance on future earnings and revenue expectations.
5Any strategic partnerships or collaborations that may influence growth.