Health Care·Pharmaceuticals·$2.9B
Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) is a healthcare company focused on developing and commercializing innovative treatments for central nervous system disorders. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in addressing unmet medical needs in neurology and psychiatry.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
38%
Avg EPS Surprise
-74.53%
Avg Stock Reaction
+1.47%
In Q4 2025, Supernus reported an EPS of -$0.07, significantly missing the estimate of $0.14. Despite the miss, the stock rose by 5.15% the following day, indicating some investor optimism.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Supernus to report an EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $193 million for Q1 2026. Given the company's recent performance, there is a mix of cautious optimism and concern among investors.
Bull Case
If Supernus meets or exceeds EPS and revenue expectations, it could signal a recovery in profitability and boost investor confidence, potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it may raise concerns about its operational efficiency and future growth prospects, leading to a negative reaction in the stock price.
EPS
0.28Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
193MTotal revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.28?
A beat on EPS could indicate improved profitability and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge market demand for Supernus's products and its ability to sustain growth.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in Supernus's earnings, given the recent product launches and market expansion efforts.
Supporting Evidence
Supernus has a history of surprising on the upside when expectations are low, as seen in previous quarters.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders are anticipating significant news.
The company has been actively expanding its product line, which could drive revenue growth beyond current estimates.
Key Risk
If the EPS comes in above $0.30, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift investor expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of misses, and investors are keen to see if Supernus can turn things around.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.25 would indicate ongoing challenges and could lead to a reassessment of the company's growth prospects.
Implied Move
±6.65%
Historical Avg
±1.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±6.7% while SUPN has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options rich in Health Care
n=30Fade rate: 10 of 27 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 17 of 27 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.7%, with a raw directional average of +3.7% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Supernus beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.10%, confirming a positive trend.
In-Line / Cautious
If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of 1.70% following such outcomes.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE C Class B
May 4, 2026