Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$1.57
EPS est.
$1.20
EPS surprise
+30.62%
1-day move
-1.21%
Stanley Black & Decker reported an EPS that met expectations, showing a significant surprise compared to previous forecasts. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.21%. The lack of revenue data and guidance may have contributed to investor uncertainty.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.57 | $1.57 | +30.62% |
| Revenue | N/A | $3.7B | N/A |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) is a leading manufacturer of tools and industrial equipment, operating primarily in the industrials sector. The company is well-known for its wide range of products, including power tools, hand tools, and security solutions, which are essential for both consumers and professionals. As trends in construction and home improvement continue to evolve, Stanley Black & Decker's performance is closely tied to consumer spending and industrial activity.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Stanley Black & Decker reported an EPS of $0.80, significantly beating expectations of $0.61. However, the stock fell by 3.12% the following day, indicating potential market concerns despite the positive earnings surprise.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+34.67%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.32%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Stanley Black & Decker's upcoming earnings, expecting solid EPS and revenue figures. However, there are concerns about market conditions and consumer demand that could impact performance.
Bull case
If the company can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it could signal a robust recovery and increased market confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting broader economic uncertainties.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.57Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$3.7BRevenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for Stanley Black & Decker's products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.57?
A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's operational strength and could boost investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?
Forward-looking guidance will be critical in assessing the company's ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the company's ability to leverage its strong brand and product innovation to drive higher sales, especially in a recovering economy.
Supporting evidence
Stanley Black & Decker has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting underlying strength.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.
Key risk
If the company reports revenue growth above $3.8B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Stanley Black & Decker can maintain its profitability amid economic pressures and changing consumer behavior.
Bull confirmed if
Delivering an EPS of $1.65 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.52 would suggest potential weaknesses in profitability and could validate bearish concerns.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±19.14%
Historical Avg
±3.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±19.1% while SWK has averaged ±3.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
38.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +1.9% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.36%
of float
Insider
0.32%
of float
Holders
1,027
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Capital Research Global Investors
13,117,876 sh · $1.2B
8.69%
1.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Stanley Black & Decker beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +4.65%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history indicates an average one-day move of -0.92%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
11,055,174 sh · $976.3M
7.32%
10.2%
Blackrock Inc.
10,692,910 sh · $944.3M
7.08%
3.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
10,143,817 sh · $895.8M
6.72%
0.8%
State Street Corporation
8,751,801 sh · $772.9M
5.80%
5.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.