Consumer Discretionary·Apparel Retail·$173.8B
TJX Cos Inc is a leading off-price retailer in the consumer discretionary sector, specializing in apparel and home goods. The company operates well-known brands like T.J....
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and reflects the company's ability to generate profit for shareholders.
Revenue
Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
8Q
EPS Beat Rate
100%
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.09%
Avg Stock Reaction
+1.29%
In Q4 2026, TJX reported an EPS of $1.43, exceeding estimates by 3.32%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.17% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect TJX to report solid earnings and revenue growth, driven by strong consumer demand for off-price retail products. Investors are particularly focused on how the company navigates current economic conditions.
Bull Case
If TJX beats earnings expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust consumer spending and effective inventory management, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings estimates or provides cautious guidance, it may signal weakening consumer demand, which could negatively impact the stock.
EPS
$1.01Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and reflects the company's ability to generate profit for shareholders.
Revenue
$14.0BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What is the expected EPS for Q1-2027, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
The EPS figure will be crucial in assessing the company's profitability and growth trajectory, especially in the current economic climate.
Q2
What revenue growth is anticipated for this quarter, and how does it reflect consumer spending trends?
Understanding revenue growth will provide insights into consumer behavior and the effectiveness of TJX's pricing strategy in a competitive market.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate TJX's ability to capture market share from traditional retailers as consumers increasingly seek value. The company's strong track record of beating earnings could indicate a more resilient performance than analysts expect.
Supporting Evidence
TJX has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting strong operational execution.
The current economic environment may favor off-price retailers as consumers prioritize value.
Options pricing indicates a larger potential move than historical averages, suggesting that the market is bracing for significant news.
Key Risk
If TJX reports an EPS below $1.00, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects the company's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $1.06 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and consumer demand.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.99 would raise concerns about sales and profitability.
Implied Move
±6.79%
Historical Avg
±2.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting heightened investor uncertainty or anticipation.
Options are pricing ±6.9% while TJX has averaged ±2.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
n=30Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If TJX beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +1.29%, confirming strong consumer demand.
In-Line / Cautious
An in-line result could lead to muted market reactions as investors await further commentary on future growth prospects.
Miss
If the company misses estimates, history indicates a potential downside move of around -2.89%, reflecting investor disappointment.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
VIKING HLDGS LTD
May 19, 2026