Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Aug 4, 2026
EPS actual
$0.44
EPS est.
$0.50
EPS surprise
-11.29%
1-day move
-0.98%
TransMedics Group, Inc. reported earnings that fell short of expectations, particularly in EPS. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.98%. Investors may be concerned about the company's performance given the missed EPS target and lack of revenue information.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.44 | $0.48 | -11.29% |
| Revenue | — | $184M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
TransMedics Group, Inc. operates in the health care sector, focusing on innovative equipment for organ transplantation. Their technology aims to improve patient outcomes by enhancing the preservation and transportation of organs, which is crucial in the growing field of transplant medicine.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, TransMedics reported an EPS of $0.30, significantly below the expected $0.62, leading to a stock decline of 2.21% the following day. The company did not provide revenue figures for this quarter.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+92.10%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.17%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic, expecting a recovery in earnings with a consensus EPS of $0.48 and revenue of $184M. However, the previous quarter's miss raises concerns about the company's ability to meet these expectations.
Bull case
If TransMedics can deliver on its EPS and revenue targets, it may signal a strong rebound in performance, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock price.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment, especially given the recent disappointing results.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.48Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$184MRevenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market demand and overall business health.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will TransMedics achieve an EPS of $0.48 or higher this quarter?
Given the significant miss last quarter, achieving this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence.
Q2
What specific revenue figures can TransMedics provide this quarter?
Revenue clarity is essential for understanding the company's growth trajectory and market demand.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±12.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for TransMedics to rebound from its last quarter's miss, as the company has historically shown strong recovery patterns after disappointing results.
Supporting evidence
TransMedics has a 75% EPS beat rate historically, indicating a strong likelihood of positive surprises.
The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders are anticipating volatility that could favor the bulls.
The company's innovative technology in organ transplantation could lead to unexpected demand spikes, which are not fully reflected in current estimates.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in below $0.33, it could significantly undermine the bullish narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is focused on whether TransMedics can recover from its recent earnings miss and show growth in both EPS and revenue.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.48 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.33 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the company's operations.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±37.24%
Historical Avg
±2.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect high volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±37.2% while TMDX has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
92.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care
Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
103.01%
of float
Insider
3.64%
of float
Holders
489
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
5,596,549 sh · $453.7M
16.19%
5.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If TransMedics beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.07%, confirming a positive turnaround.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 0.68%, further eroding investor confidence.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
FMR, LLC
5,133,328 sh · $416.2M
14.85%
0.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
1,933,989 sh · $156.8M
5.60%
0.8%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,497,600 sh · $121.4M
4.33%
1.3%
State Street Corporation
1,420,421 sh · $115.2M
4.11%
7.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.