Equity Profile

TMDX

TransMedics Group, Inc.

Health CareHealth Care Equipment$2.4B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

TransMedics Group, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on innovative organ transplant solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its market presence and attract more customers.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TMDX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

TransMedics Group, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on innovative organ transplant solutions. They aim to improve patient outcomes through their advanced organ preservation technology, which is crucial in a sector where organ shortages are a significant challenge.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+101.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.63%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, TransMedics reported an EPS of $0.30, significantly missing the estimate of $0.62. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.21% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming earnings report, especially after a disappointing Q1. There is hope for recovery in performance metrics.

Bull Case

If TransMedics can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved EPS, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued underperformance in EPS and revenue could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility in the options market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected organ transplant volume for the quarter?

This metric will be crucial in determining the effectiveness of their technology and overall business health.

How does management plan to address the recent EPS miss?

Investors will be looking for concrete steps to improve profitability and restore confidence in the company's financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in organ transplant volume, which could significantly impact revenue and EPS positively.

Supporting Evidence

The recent historical trend shows a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating the potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a high expected move, indicating that investors are bracing for volatility, which could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If organ transplant volumes exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in revenue forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is critical as it follows a significant EPS miss, and investors are keen to see if the company can rebound.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating a recovery in EPS to at least $0.62 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would reinforce the bear case and raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±34.37%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±37.2% while TMDX has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

92.1%

Calls (97K)P/C Ratio: 2.57Puts (106K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 15 of 30 (50%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 15 of 30 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.9%, with a raw directional average of -1.9% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TransMedics beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.07%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious but in-line report could lead to muted reactions, as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a decline of about 0.68%, which could further erode investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on organ transplant volume and any changes in market demand.
2Management's strategy for addressing the recent EPS miss.
3Any new partnerships or contracts that could drive future growth.
4Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management efforts.
5Future guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

TransMedics Group, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on innovative organ transplant solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its market presence and attract more customers.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TMDX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+101.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.63%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, TransMedics reported an EPS of $0.30, significantly missing the estimate of $0.62. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.21% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming earnings report, especially after a disappointing Q1. There is hope for recovery in performance metrics.

Bull Case

If TransMedics can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved EPS, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued underperformance in EPS and revenue could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility in the options market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected organ transplant volume for the quarter?

This metric will be crucial in determining the effectiveness of their technology and overall business health.

How does management plan to address the recent EPS miss?

Investors will be looking for concrete steps to improve profitability and restore confidence in the company's financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in organ transplant volume, which could significantly impact revenue and EPS positively.

Supporting Evidence

The recent historical trend shows a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating the potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a high expected move, indicating that investors are bracing for volatility, which could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If organ transplant volumes exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in revenue forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is critical as it follows a significant EPS miss, and investors are keen to see if the company can rebound.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating a recovery in EPS to at least $0.62 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would reinforce the bear case and raise concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±34.37%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±37.2% while TMDX has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

92.1%

Calls (97K)P/C Ratio: 2.57Puts (106K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 15 of 30 (50%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TransMedics beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.07%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious but in-line report could lead to muted reactions, as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations again, history suggests a decline of about 0.68%, which could further erode investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on organ transplant volume and any changes in market demand.
2Management's strategy for addressing the recent EPS miss.
3Any new partnerships or contracts that could drive future growth.
4Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management efforts.
5Future guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.