Equity Profile

TMDX

TransMedics Group, Inc.

Health CareHealth Care Equipment$3.1B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

TransMedics Group, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on innovative organ transplant solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.48

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for their products.

$184M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TMDX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

TransMedics Group, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on innovative organ transplant solutions. Their technology aims to improve the success rates of organ transplants, which is crucial as demand for organ donations continues to grow. With a market cap of $3 billion, they operate in the health care equipment sector, addressing significant medical needs.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+101.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.63%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, TransMedics reported an EPS of $0.30, significantly below the expected $0.62, leading to a decline in stock price the following day. This miss raised concerns about the company's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about TransMedics' upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the recent earnings miss has created uncertainty among investors.

Bull Case

If the company can exceed the EPS estimate and report strong revenue growth, it may signal a recovery and renewed investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and increased skepticism about its future prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.48

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$184M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for their products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.48?

A positive EPS surprise could restore investor confidence after the previous quarter's miss and indicate stronger operational performance.

What are the revenue expectations for the quarter compared to the consensus of $184M?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing market demand for TransMedics' products and overall business health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be overly cautious given the potential for a recovery in demand for TransMedics' products, which could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical performance shows a strong beat rate of 75%, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which could reflect investor sentiment that the company is poised for a rebound.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS above $0.55, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is pivotal as it follows a significant earnings miss, and the market is eager to see if the company can rebound.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $188M, would confirm a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.33 or revenue falling short of $178M would reinforce concerns about the company's growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±37.24%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±37.2% while TMDX has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

92.1%

Calls (97K)P/C Ratio: 2.57Puts (106K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TransMedics beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.07%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement, reflecting ongoing investor caution.

Miss

Should the company miss again, the stock could drop around 0.68%, further shaking investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on product demand and sales growth in the organ transplant market.
2Management's commentary on operational improvements and cost management strategies.
3Details on any new partnerships or collaborations that could enhance market reach.
4Insights into competitive positioning and market share trends.
5Guidance on future quarters and any long-term strategic initiatives.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

TransMedics Group, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on innovative organ transplant solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.48

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for their products.

$184M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TMDX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+101.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.63%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about TransMedics' upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the recent earnings miss has created uncertainty among investors.

Bull Case

If the company can exceed the EPS estimate and report strong revenue growth, it may signal a recovery and renewed investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and increased skepticism about its future prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.48

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$184M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for their products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.48?

A positive EPS surprise could restore investor confidence after the previous quarter's miss and indicate stronger operational performance.

What are the revenue expectations for the quarter compared to the consensus of $184M?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing market demand for TransMedics' products and overall business health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be overly cautious given the potential for a recovery in demand for TransMedics' products, which could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical performance shows a strong beat rate of 75%, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which could reflect investor sentiment that the company is poised for a rebound.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS above $0.55, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is pivotal as it follows a significant earnings miss, and the market is eager to see if the company can rebound.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $188M, would confirm a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.33 or revenue falling short of $178M would reinforce concerns about the company's growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±37.24%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±37.2% while TMDX has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

92.1%

Calls (97K)P/C Ratio: 2.57Puts (106K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TransMedics beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.07%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement, reflecting ongoing investor caution.

Miss

Should the company miss again, the stock could drop around 0.68%, further shaking investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on product demand and sales growth in the organ transplant market.
2Management's commentary on operational improvements and cost management strategies.
3Details on any new partnerships or collaborations that could enhance market reach.
4Insights into competitive positioning and market share trends.
5Guidance on future quarters and any long-term strategic initiatives.