Equity Profile

TMDX

TransMedics Group, Inc.

Health CareHealth Care Equipment$2.6B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

TransMedics Group, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on innovative organ transplant solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance relative to expectations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and drive sales.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TMDX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

TransMedics Group, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on innovative organ transplant solutions. Their technology aims to improve the success rates of organ transplants, which is crucial as demand for transplants continues to rise. With a market cap of $3 billion, they operate in the healthcare equipment sector, which is seeing significant advancements and investments.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+101.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.63%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, TransMedics reported an EPS of $0.30, which was significantly below expectations, resulting in a stock decline of 2.21% the following day. This miss raised concerns about the company's growth trajectory and operational challenges.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautious heading into the earnings report, especially after the significant EPS miss last quarter. Analysts are looking for signs of improvement in both profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If TransMedics can demonstrate a rebound in EPS and strong revenue growth, it could restore investor confidence and drive the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and heightened skepticism about its future prospects.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the updated EPS forecast for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss last quarter, the market will closely watch for any signs of recovery in profitability.

How have organ transplant success rates changed recently?

Success rates directly impact the company's reputation and future sales, making this a critical metric for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be overly focused on the recent EPS miss without considering the potential for a rebound in organ transplant success rates and revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 37.24% move, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility.

Historical data shows that the company has a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Recent advancements in organ transplant technology could lead to improved outcomes and sales.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS above $0.62, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are crucial as they will indicate whether the company can bounce back from previous disappointments.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.62 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would reinforce concerns about the company's growth trajectory.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±37.24%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±37.2% while TMDX has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

92.1%

Calls (97K)P/C Ratio: 2.57Puts (106K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TransMedics beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.07%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may remain stable, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.68%, further eroding investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on organ transplant technology advancements.
2Details on revenue growth and market expansion efforts.
3Management's outlook on future EPS and profitability.
4Insights into operational challenges and how they are being addressed.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning in the healthcare equipment sector.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

TransMedics Group, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on innovative organ transplant solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance relative to expectations.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and drive sales.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TMDX Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+101.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.63%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If TransMedics can demonstrate a rebound in EPS and strong revenue growth, it could restore investor confidence and drive the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and heightened skepticism about its future prospects.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the updated EPS forecast for Q2-2026?

Given the significant miss last quarter, the market will closely watch for any signs of recovery in profitability.

How have organ transplant success rates changed recently?

Success rates directly impact the company's reputation and future sales, making this a critical metric for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be overly focused on the recent EPS miss without considering the potential for a rebound in organ transplant success rates and revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 37.24% move, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility.

Historical data shows that the company has a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Recent advancements in organ transplant technology could lead to improved outcomes and sales.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS above $0.62, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are crucial as they will indicate whether the company can bounce back from previous disappointments.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.62 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would reinforce concerns about the company's growth trajectory.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±37.24%

Historical Avg

±2.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±37.2% while TMDX has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

92.1%

Calls (97K)P/C Ratio: 2.57Puts (106K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If TransMedics beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.07%, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may remain stable, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.68%, further eroding investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on organ transplant technology advancements.
2Details on revenue growth and market expansion efforts.
3Management's outlook on future EPS and profitability.
4Insights into operational challenges and how they are being addressed.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning in the healthcare equipment sector.