Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Mon, Nov 16, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±24.0%
EPS beat rate
38%
Twist Bioscience Corporation is a biotechnology company focused on synthetic DNA production, which is crucial for various applications in healthcare, agriculture, and industrial biotechnology. As part of the health care sector, its innovations could significantly impact genetic research and personalized medicine.
Last quarter
In Q3-2026, Twist reported an EPS of -$0.56, missing estimates by 12%. Despite this, the stock rose by over 10% the following day, indicating some investor optimism.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
+14.51%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.19%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the recent stock price movements despite earnings misses. The lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.
Bull case
If Twist can show improved revenue growth and reduce its losses, it could regain investor confidence and drive the stock higher.
Bear case
Continued losses and lack of revenue growth could lead to further declines in stock price, especially if the market reacts negatively to the earnings report.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected revenue growth for the upcoming quarter?
Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to scale and attract further investment.
Q2
Will the company provide any guidance on future profitability?
Guidance on profitability can significantly influence investor sentiment and stock performance.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±16.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating Twist's potential for revenue growth due to its innovative DNA synthesis technology, which could capture a larger market share than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
The recent stock price increase despite earnings misses suggests that investors are optimistic about future growth.
Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting uncertainty that could be resolved positively.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter centers around whether Twist can improve its financial performance and reassure investors after recent earnings misses.
Bull confirmed if
A reduction in EPS losses to below -$0.50 could confirm a bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
If EPS losses exceed -$0.70, it would signal a bearish trend.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±24.03%
Historical Avg
±9.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.
Options are pricing ±24.0% while TWST has averaged ±9.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.9%
30d HV
98.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$21.0M
110,997 sh
6 insiders
Net
$21.0M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 25 open-market trades
$10.6M
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Twist beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 0.91%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors await clearer guidance.
Miss
If the company misses again, history indicates a potential decline of about 0.24%, which could further erode investor confidence.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$4.9M
Net selling
$1.9M
Net selling
$1.8M
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $188.88
45,736 sh
$8.6M
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $188.88
25,714 sh
$4.9M
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $188.88
10,088 sh
$1.9M
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $188.88
9,514 sh
$1.8M
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $188.88
8,057 sh
$1.5M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.