Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$1.87
EPS est.
$1.87
EPS surprise
+0.11%
1-day move
-1.10%
Texas Roadhouse reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which is a positive sign for the company. However, the stock fell by 1.1% following the earnings release, indicating that investors may have been disappointed by the lack of revenue information and guidance. The absence of management commentary could also contribute to uncertainty among investors.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.87 | $1.80 | +0.11% |
| Revenue | N/A | $1.6B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a popular restaurant chain known for its casual dining experience and hand-cut steaks. As part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends, making it a key player in the restaurant industry.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Texas Roadhouse reported an EPS of $1.28, which was below analyst expectations, leading to a negative market reaction. The stock fell by 2.32% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-3.63%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.73%
Analysts expect Texas Roadhouse to report an EPS of $1.80 and revenue of $1.6B for Q1-2026, with some uncertainty due to recent performance trends.
Bull case
If Texas Roadhouse can exceed EPS expectations, it may signal strong customer demand and effective cost management, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates again, it could raise concerns about its ability to attract customers and manage expenses, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.80Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and revenues.
Revenue
$1.6BTotal revenue reflects the overall sales performance and customer traffic, which are vital for assessing growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Texas Roadhouse achieve an EPS of at least $1.80?
This number is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and could significantly impact investor sentiment.
Q2
How has customer traffic changed compared to last quarter?
Understanding customer trends will provide insights into the company's ability to drive revenue growth in a competitive environment.
Est. EPS
$1.72
Est. Rev
$289M
Impl. Move
±21.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising consumer spending on dining out, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
Recent trends indicate increased consumer spending in the restaurant sector, which could benefit Texas Roadhouse.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
Despite recent misses, Texas Roadhouse has a loyal customer base that may drive better performance.
Key risk
If customer traffic shows significant improvement, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching Texas Roadhouse's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses and demonstrate growth.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.80 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.58 would signal ongoing challenges in attracting customers and managing costs.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.56%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.6% while TXRH has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
3.3%
30d HV
27.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.07%
of float
Insider
0.42%
of float
Holders
828
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
6,588,899 sh · $1.1B
10.04%
-2.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Texas Roadhouse beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +0.34%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.
Miss
If the company misses earnings expectations again, history suggests a potential average one-day decline of -0.64%, raising concerns among investors.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
1 buy·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Capital World Investors
4,339,069 sh · $705.0M
6.61%
-1.0%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
4,082,764 sh · $663.4M
6.22%
12.9%
Alliancebernstein L.P.
3,230,940 sh · $525.0M
4.92%
6.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,063,389 sh · $497.7M
4.67%
-0.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 11, 2026 · disclosed Sep 10, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 30, 2026 · disclosed Jul 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.