Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.89
EPS est.
$1.15
EPS surprise
-22.81%
1-day move
-2.93%
UFP Industries reported lower-than-expected earnings per share for Q1-2026, which likely contributed to the stock's decline of 2.93% following the announcement. Investors may be concerned about the company's performance relative to expectations, especially given the lack of revenue figures and guidance updates. The significant EPS miss suggests potential challenges in the current market environment.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.89 | $1.10 | -22.81% |
| Revenue | N/A | $1.5B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) operates in the industrial sector, specifically within building products. The company is significant as it provides a range of products used in construction and manufacturing, which are influenced by trends in housing and infrastructure development.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, UFP Industries reported an EPS of $0.70, significantly below the estimate of $1.03, leading to a stock decline of 3.14% the following day. This miss raised concerns about the company's ability to meet earnings expectations.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
13%
Avg EPS surprise
-13.66%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.20%
Analysts expect UFP Industries to report an EPS of $1.10 and revenue of $1.5B for Q1-2026. Given the recent earnings misses, there is cautious sentiment surrounding the company's ability to meet these expectations.
Bull case
If UFP can exceed the EPS estimate, it may signal a rebound in profitability and improved operational efficiency, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses again, it could indicate deeper issues with demand or cost management, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$1.10EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$1.5BRevenue figures will provide insight into overall sales performance and demand for UFP's products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will UFP Industries achieve an EPS of at least $1.10?
This figure is crucial as it will indicate whether the company is recovering from previous earnings misses and managing costs effectively.
Q2
What factors are driving revenue growth towards the expected $1.5B?
Understanding the drivers behind revenue expectations will help assess demand for UFP's products and overall market conditions.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for UFP to rebound, given its historical volatility and the current pricing of options suggesting a larger move than typically observed.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 5% move, indicating higher uncertainty compared to the historical average of 2.25%.
UFP's recent earnings history shows a pattern of volatility that could lead to a surprise in either direction.
Insider activity has been minimal, suggesting no strong conviction from insiders about the company's near-term performance.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in below $1.10, it could reinforce negative sentiment and lead to further stock declines.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether UFP can turn around its recent performance and meet market expectations.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.10 or better, indicating a strong recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.10, which would confirm ongoing challenges in meeting earnings expectations.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.0%
Historical Avg
±2.25%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5% in either direction following the earnings report, suggesting uncertainty among investors.
Options price a 5% move but the stock has averaged only 2.25% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
27.9%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
90.89%
of float
Insider
1.98%
of float
Holders
518
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
7,582,797 sh · $579.6M
13.75%
-1.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If UFP beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.92%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react moderately, reflecting cautious optimism without strong conviction.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 0.51%, reinforcing concerns about the company's operational challenges.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,341,840 sh · $255.5M
6.06%
1.4%
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
2,989,380 sh · $228.5M
5.42%
-6.2%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,540,879 sh · $194.2M
4.61%
-0.1%
State Street Corporation
2,191,851 sh · $167.5M
3.97%
1.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.