Equity Profile

UGP

Ultrapar ParticipaÃ§Ãµes S.A.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$6.4B

Aug12Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2018After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focused on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating profit.

$0.13

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q2-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focused on automotive retail. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a significant role in the automotive market, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported an EPS of $0.14, slightly above expectations, but revenue figures were not disclosed. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting Ultrapar to report an EPS of $0.13 and revenue of $37.3 billion this quarter, reflecting cautious optimism in the automotive retail sector.

Bull Case

If Ultrapar exceeds the EPS estimate, it could indicate strong operational efficiency and consumer demand, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its revenue expectations, it may signal weakening demand or operational challenges, which could negatively impact the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating profit.

Revenue

$37.3B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ultrapar's revenue meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $37.3 billion?

Revenue performance is critical to gauge the company's market position and consumer demand, which will heavily influence stock sentiment.

How will management address operational challenges that may impact profitability?

Insights into operational efficiency and cost management will be crucial for investors to understand the company's ability to sustain profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent consumer spending trends, which could positively influence Ultrapar's revenue.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a 25.1% move, indicating expectations for significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates suggests a potential for positive surprises this quarter.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $32.2 billion, it could challenge the optimistic outlook and raise concerns about market demand.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will reflect the company's ability to navigate market challenges and consumer behavior.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS above $0.13 and revenue exceeding $37.3 billion would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.13 or revenue significantly under $37.3 billion would raise concerns about demand and operational efficiency.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.1%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±25.1% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

32.0%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 0.20Puts (0)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.55%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of 1.73% following disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends in the automotive sector.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Insights into competitive pressures and market share performance.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focused on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating profit.

$0.13

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q2-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported an EPS of $0.14, slightly above expectations, but revenue figures were not disclosed. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting Ultrapar to report an EPS of $0.13 and revenue of $37.3 billion this quarter, reflecting cautious optimism in the automotive retail sector.

Bull Case

If Ultrapar exceeds the EPS estimate, it could indicate strong operational efficiency and consumer demand, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its revenue expectations, it may signal weakening demand or operational challenges, which could negatively impact the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating profit.

Revenue

$37.3B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ultrapar's revenue meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $37.3 billion?

Revenue performance is critical to gauge the company's market position and consumer demand, which will heavily influence stock sentiment.

How will management address operational challenges that may impact profitability?

Insights into operational efficiency and cost management will be crucial for investors to understand the company's ability to sustain profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent consumer spending trends, which could positively influence Ultrapar's revenue.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a 25.1% move, indicating expectations for significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates suggests a potential for positive surprises this quarter.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $32.2 billion, it could challenge the optimistic outlook and raise concerns about market demand.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will reflect the company's ability to navigate market challenges and consumer behavior.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS above $0.13 and revenue exceeding $37.3 billion would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.13 or revenue significantly under $37.3 billion would raise concerns about demand and operational efficiency.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.1%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±25.1% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

32.0%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 0.20Puts (0)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.55%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of 1.73% following disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends in the automotive sector.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Insights into competitive pressures and market share performance.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending.