Equity Profile

UGP

Ultrapar ParticipaÃ§Ãµes S.A.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$6.6B

Aug12Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2018After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, reflecting the company's ability to generate profit for its shareholders.

$0.13

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which is crucial for understanding growth potential.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q2-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail. With a market cap of $7 billion, the company plays a significant role in the automotive market, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported an EPS of $0.14, slightly above expectations, but the stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.05% the next day. This indicates some investor caution despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ultrapar to report an EPS of $0.13 and revenue of $37.3 billion for Q2-2018. The market is closely watching these figures to gauge the company's performance amid fluctuating consumer demand.

Bull Case

If Ultrapar exceeds expectations, it could signal strong consumer demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its targets, it may indicate underlying weaknesses in sales or market conditions, potentially leading to a significant stock decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, reflecting the company's ability to generate profit for its shareholders.

Revenue

$37.3B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which is crucial for understanding growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ultrapar's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.13?

This figure is critical as it directly impacts investor sentiment and stock valuation.

What will be the revenue figure compared to the consensus of $37.3 billion?

Revenue growth is a key indicator of the company's market position and consumer demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Ultrapar's ability to leverage operational efficiencies, leading to better-than-expected earnings despite market challenges.

Supporting Evidence

Ultrapar has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting potential for another surprise.

Options pricing indicates a high volatility expectation, which could reflect investor uncertainty not captured in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in significantly below $35 billion, it could challenge the bullish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Ultrapar can sustain its earnings growth amid changing consumer preferences and economic factors.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.15 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and consumer demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would raise concerns about the company's profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.1%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.1% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

32.0%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 0.20Puts (0)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.55%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 1.73%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends in the automotive sector.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiencies and cost management.
3Insights into competitive pressures and market share.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Any strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing profitability.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. operates in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focusing on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, reflecting the company's ability to generate profit for its shareholders.

$0.13

Revenue

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which is crucial for understanding growth potential.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q2-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ultrapar exceeds expectations, it could signal strong consumer demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses its targets, it may indicate underlying weaknesses in sales or market conditions, potentially leading to a significant stock decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, reflecting the company's ability to generate profit for its shareholders.

Revenue

$37.3B

Total revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which is crucial for understanding growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ultrapar's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.13?

This figure is critical as it directly impacts investor sentiment and stock valuation.

What will be the revenue figure compared to the consensus of $37.3 billion?

Revenue growth is a key indicator of the company's market position and consumer demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Ultrapar's ability to leverage operational efficiencies, leading to better-than-expected earnings despite market challenges.

Supporting Evidence

Ultrapar has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting potential for another surprise.

Options pricing indicates a high volatility expectation, which could reflect investor uncertainty not captured in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in significantly below $35 billion, it could challenge the bullish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Ultrapar can sustain its earnings growth amid changing consumer preferences and economic factors.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.15 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and consumer demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would raise concerns about the company's profitability and market conditions.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.1%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.1% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

32.0%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 0.20Puts (0)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.55%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 1.73%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends in the automotive sector.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiencies and cost management.
3Insights into competitive pressures and market share.
4Future guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Any strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing profitability.