Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Ultrapar Participações is a Brazilian company operating in the automotive retail sector, primarily involved in fuel distribution and convenience store operations. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a significant role in the consumer discretionary sector, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and economic conditions.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues this quarter.
Revenue
Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand, which is crucial for assessing growth.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
25%
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.46%
Avg Stock Reaction
-0.41%
In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported an EPS of $0.14, slightly above expectations. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are expecting Ultrapar to report an EPS of $0.13 and revenue of $37.3 billion. The market is keen to see if the company can maintain its profitability amid fluctuating consumer demand.
Bull Case
If Ultrapar exceeds earnings expectations, it could indicate strong operational efficiency and a robust consumer demand, potentially driving the stock price higher.
Bear Case
On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may signal deeper issues in sales or cost management, leading to a negative reaction in the stock.
EPS
$0.13Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues this quarter.
Revenue
$37.3BTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand, which is crucial for assessing growth.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
How does Ultrapar plan to address any potential declines in consumer demand?
Given the current economic climate, any insights into consumer behavior will be crucial for investors.
Q2
What specific strategies will Ultrapar implement to improve revenue growth this quarter?
Understanding management's approach to driving sales will be key to assessing future performance.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of operational efficiencies that Ultrapar has implemented, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.
Supporting Evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong management performance.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect a surprise, which could be positive.
The absence of insider selling suggests confidence in the company's future performance.
Key Risk
If revenue growth exceeds $37.3 billion, it could shift market sentiment significantly.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be critical in determining whether Ultrapar can sustain its profitability amidst economic challenges.
Bull Confirmed If
Earnings exceeding $0.13 per share and revenue surpassing $37.3 billion would confirm a strong operational performance.
Bear Confirmed If
Earnings below $0.13 per share or revenue falling short of $32.2 billion would indicate potential issues in the business.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±43.25%
Historical Avg
±1.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±43.3% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
31.7%
Edge
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
5.99%
of float
Insider
0.00%
of float
Holders
180
institutions
Top Holders· as of Dec 2025
Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%
Morgan Stanley
4,947,134 sh · $28.4M
0.44%
-19.9%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
4,214,612 sh · $24.2M
0.38%
98.2%
Blackrock Inc.
3,569,144 sh · $20.5M
0.32%
-8.5%
Renaissance Technologies, LLC
3,382,778 sh · $19.5M
0.30%
31.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.55%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
Should the results be in line with expectations, the stock may experience minimal movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
If the company misses earnings expectations, the stock could decline, with historical patterns suggesting a drop of around 1.73%.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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