Equity Profile

UGP

Ultrapar ParticipaÃ§Ãµes S.A.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$5.2B

Aug12Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2018After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the automotive retail sector, focusing on fuel distribution and convenience stores....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.13

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into sales performance and market demand for Ultrapar's products and services.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q2-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the automotive retail sector, focusing on fuel distribution and convenience stores. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a significant role in the consumer discretionary sector, which is sensitive to economic conditions and consumer spending trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2018, Ultrapar reported an EPS of $0.14, slightly above expectations, but revenue details were not disclosed. Following the report, the stock experienced a minor decline of 1.05%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ultrapar to report stable earnings and revenue, with a consensus EPS of $0.13 and revenue of $37.3 billion. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or challenges in the automotive retail space.

Bull Case

If Ultrapar can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in consumer spending, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings or revenue, it could indicate ongoing challenges in the automotive sector, leading to a negative response from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$37.3B

Revenue figures will provide insight into sales performance and market demand for Ultrapar's products and services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be compared to the consensus of $0.13?

This number is crucial for understanding the company's profitability and could significantly influence investor sentiment.

How does revenue compare to the consensus estimate of $37.3 billion?

Revenue performance will indicate market demand and the company's ability to grow sales, which is vital for future projections.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for Ultrapar to capitalize on improving consumer demand, especially if there are signs of recovery in the automotive sector.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility which could be driven by positive news.

Ultrapar has a history of beating EPS estimates, suggesting that the company may perform better than expected.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in significantly above $37.3 billion, it could shift the market's perception of Ultrapar's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the company's ability to maintain earnings and revenue growth amid economic fluctuations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.15 or higher would confirm strong profitability and positive market sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would raise concerns about profitability and market challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±29.68%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.1% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

32.0%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 0.20Puts (0)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.76%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average one-day move of -1.73% when expectations are not met.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on sales trends in the automotive retail sector.
2Updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into consumer spending patterns and how they affect Ultrapar's business.
4Any guidance on future revenue expectations or market conditions.
5Details on competitive positioning within the automotive retail space.

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Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the automotive retail sector, focusing on fuel distribution and convenience stores....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.13

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into sales performance and market demand for Ultrapar's products and services.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q2-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2018, Ultrapar reported an EPS of $0.14, slightly above expectations, but revenue details were not disclosed. Following the report, the stock experienced a minor decline of 1.05%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ultrapar can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in consumer spending, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings or revenue, it could indicate ongoing challenges in the automotive sector, leading to a negative response from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$37.3B

Revenue figures will provide insight into sales performance and market demand for Ultrapar's products and services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be compared to the consensus of $0.13?

This number is crucial for understanding the company's profitability and could significantly influence investor sentiment.

How does revenue compare to the consensus estimate of $37.3 billion?

Revenue performance will indicate market demand and the company's ability to grow sales, which is vital for future projections.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for Ultrapar to capitalize on improving consumer demand, especially if there are signs of recovery in the automotive sector.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility which could be driven by positive news.

Ultrapar has a history of beating EPS estimates, suggesting that the company may perform better than expected.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in significantly above $37.3 billion, it could shift the market's perception of Ultrapar's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the company's ability to maintain earnings and revenue growth amid economic fluctuations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.15 or higher would confirm strong profitability and positive market sentiment.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would raise concerns about profitability and market challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±29.68%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.1% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

32.0%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 0.20Puts (0)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.76%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average one-day move of -1.73% when expectations are not met.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on sales trends in the automotive retail sector.
2Updates on cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into consumer spending patterns and how they affect Ultrapar's business.
4Any guidance on future revenue expectations or market conditions.
5Details on competitive positioning within the automotive retail space.