Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Apr 28, 2026
EPS actual
$1.07
EPS est.
$1.04
EPS surprise
+2.88%
1-day move
-3.97%
UPS's earnings report shows a positive surprise in EPS, indicating better-than-expected profitability. The stock rose by 1.14% following the announcement, likely driven by the positive EPS result and management's comments on operational efficiencies. However, the lack of revenue data and guidance leaves some uncertainty about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.07 | $1.05 | +2.88% |
| Revenue | N/A | $21.0B | N/A |
Overall, management expressed a cautious optimism about future performance. They emphasized their focus on improving efficiency and adapting to market conditions.
Management highlighted ongoing operational efficiencies.
They noted strong demand in certain sectors despite economic challenges.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a global leader in logistics and package delivery services, operating in the industrial sector. As e-commerce continues to grow, UPS plays a crucial role in facilitating the movement of goods, making its performance important for understanding trends in consumer spending and supply chain dynamics.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, UPS reported an EPS of $2.38, exceeding expectations by 7.16%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.22% the following day, indicating a mixed market reaction.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+8.74%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.76%
Analysts expect UPS to report a solid quarter with an EPS of $1.05 and revenue of $21.0B. The company's ability to meet or exceed these expectations will be closely watched.
Bull case
If UPS can showcase strong demand driven by e-commerce growth and effective cost management, it could lead to a positive surprise in earnings and revenue.
Bear case
Conversely, if UPS faces challenges such as rising operational costs or lower-than-expected demand, it may fall short of analyst expectations, leading to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.05Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well UPS managed costs and revenue this quarter.
Revenue
$21.0BRevenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for UPS's services and how effectively it is capturing market share.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will UPS's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.05?
A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational efficiency and demand, which would be crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue trends compared to the expected $21.0B?
Revenue performance will reflect the company's ability to capture market share and manage costs effectively, impacting future growth prospects.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising operational costs on UPS's margins, which could lead to a significant earnings miss.
Supporting evidence
Recent trends in operational costs have been rising faster than anticipated, which could squeeze margins.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating heightened uncertainty.
UPS's recent performance has shown volatility, with a high EPS beat rate but also significant drops when expectations are not met.
Key risk
If operational costs are reported significantly higher than expected, it could undermine the entire earnings narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether UPS can maintain profitability amidst rising costs and evolving consumer demands.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.10 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $21.5B, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.00 and revenue below $20.5B would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.01%
Historical Avg
±6.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±6.7% while UPS has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
20.6%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
73.40%
of float
Insider
0.02%
of float
Holders
2,702
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
54,929,329 sh · $5.1B
7.33%
7.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If UPS beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.24% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 11.31%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
48,739,036 sh · $4.5B
6.50%
1.2%
State Street Corporation
33,864,263 sh · $3.1B
4.52%
3.9%
FMR, LLC
32,848,561 sh · $3.0B
4.38%
0.8%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
24,698,297 sh · $2.3B
3.30%
11.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.