Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 28, 2026
EPS actual
$1.76
EPS est.
$1.65
EPS surprise
+6.86%
1-day move
-6.57%
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a global leader in logistics and package delivery, operating in the industrials sector. As e-commerce continues to grow, UPS plays a crucial role in facilitating shipping and delivery services, making it an important player in the logistics industry.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, UPS reported an EPS of $1.07, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock fell 3.97% the following day, indicating some investor disappointment.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+8.74%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.76%
Overall, analysts expect UPS to report solid earnings, but there is uncertainty around revenue growth and operational efficiency due to market conditions.
Bull case
If UPS can demonstrate strong revenue growth and maintain or improve its operating margins, it could signal robust demand for its services, driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if UPS reports disappointing revenue figures or declining margins, it could raise concerns about its competitive position and lead to a significant drop in the stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected revenue growth rate for the upcoming quarter?
Revenue growth is critical for UPS to demonstrate its ability to capitalize on the growing e-commerce market, and any shortfall could raise concerns.
Q2
How is UPS managing its operating costs in the current economic environment?
Understanding cost management strategies will help investors gauge UPS's ability to maintain profitability amid rising operational challenges.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate UPS's ability to leverage its logistics network for growth, particularly in e-commerce, despite potential economic headwinds.
Supporting evidence
UPS's recent EPS surprises indicate a strong operational performance that could continue.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect more volatility than what the Street anticipates.
The company's historical ability to adapt to market changes may not be fully reflected in current expectations.
Key risk
If UPS can demonstrate strong revenue growth despite economic challenges, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on UPS's ability to grow revenue while managing costs effectively in a competitive logistics landscape.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth of 5% or more year-over-year would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A decline in operating margin below 10% would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.25%
Historical Avg
±6.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±13.3% while UPS has averaged ±6.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
42.6%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
73.40%
of float
Insider
0.02%
of float
Holders
2,702
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
54,929,329 sh · $5.1B
7.33%
7.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If UPS beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.73% on the first day, confirming strong demand.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess future growth.
Miss
If UPS misses expectations, the average historical reaction suggests a potential decline of 11.31%, raising concerns about its market position.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
48,739,036 sh · $4.5B
6.50%
1.2%
State Street Corporation
33,864,263 sh · $3.1B
4.52%
3.9%
FMR, LLC
32,848,561 sh · $3.0B
4.38%
0.8%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
24,698,297 sh · $2.3B
3.30%
11.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.