Equity Profile

UPS

United Parcel Service, Inc.

IndustrialsAir Freight & Logistics$96.0B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a global leader in logistics and package delivery services, operating in the industrials sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well UPS managed costs and revenue in the face of economic challenges.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into UPS's ability to capture market share and respond to demand fluctuations in logistics.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UPS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a global leader in logistics and package delivery services, operating in the industrials sector. As e-commerce continues to grow, UPS plays a crucial role in facilitating the movement of goods worldwide, making it an important player in the air freight and logistics industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.69%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, UPS reported an EPS of $1.07, slightly beating estimates. However, the stock fell 3.97% the following day, reflecting market concerns despite the positive surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for UPS are mixed, with some analysts anticipating continued growth in package volume while others worry about rising costs and economic headwinds.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on strong e-commerce demand leading to higher package volumes and improved margins, potentially driving EPS significantly above expectations.

Bear Case

Conversely, the pessimistic view focuses on rising operational costs and potential slowdowns in consumer spending, which could negatively impact revenue and profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS and revenue figures for Q2-2026?

These numbers will directly impact investor confidence and stock performance, especially given the recent mixed results.

How has package volume changed compared to last quarter?

Understanding package volume trends will help gauge UPS's market position and ability to adapt to e-commerce demands.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of rising e-commerce demand on UPS's package volume, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Historical trends show that UPS has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time, indicating potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations for volatility.

Recent e-commerce growth trends indicate a robust demand environment that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If package volume exceeds expectations significantly, it could lead to a major upward revision in revenue forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it reflects UPS's ability to navigate a challenging economic landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant EPS beat, exceeding $1.20, along with strong revenue growth, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 or a decline in package volume would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.25%

Historical Avg

±6.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.3% while UPS has averaged ±6.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

42.6%

Calls (1.2M)P/C Ratio: 0.34Puts (417K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If UPS beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 6.82%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see minimal movement, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 11.31%, as seen in past quarters, raising concerns about operational efficiency.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on package volume trends compared to last quarter.
2Insights into cost management strategies in light of rising operational expenses.
3Comments on e-commerce demand and its impact on future growth.
4Guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the logistics sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a global leader in logistics and package delivery services, operating in the industrials sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well UPS managed costs and revenue in the face of economic challenges.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into UPS's ability to capture market share and respond to demand fluctuations in logistics.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UPS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+6.69%

Avg Stock Reaction

-3.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, UPS reported an EPS of $1.07, slightly beating estimates. However, the stock fell 3.97% the following day, reflecting market concerns despite the positive surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for UPS are mixed, with some analysts anticipating continued growth in package volume while others worry about rising costs and economic headwinds.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on strong e-commerce demand leading to higher package volumes and improved margins, potentially driving EPS significantly above expectations.

Bear Case

Conversely, the pessimistic view focuses on rising operational costs and potential slowdowns in consumer spending, which could negatively impact revenue and profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS and revenue figures for Q2-2026?

These numbers will directly impact investor confidence and stock performance, especially given the recent mixed results.

How has package volume changed compared to last quarter?

Understanding package volume trends will help gauge UPS's market position and ability to adapt to e-commerce demands.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of rising e-commerce demand on UPS's package volume, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Historical trends show that UPS has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time, indicating potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations for volatility.

Recent e-commerce growth trends indicate a robust demand environment that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If package volume exceeds expectations significantly, it could lead to a major upward revision in revenue forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it reflects UPS's ability to navigate a challenging economic landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

A significant EPS beat, exceeding $1.20, along with strong revenue growth, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 or a decline in package volume would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.25%

Historical Avg

±6.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.3% while UPS has averaged ±6.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

42.6%

Calls (1.2M)P/C Ratio: 0.34Puts (417K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If UPS beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 6.82%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see minimal movement, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 11.31%, as seen in past quarters, raising concerns about operational efficiency.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on package volume trends compared to last quarter.
2Insights into cost management strategies in light of rising operational expenses.
3Comments on e-commerce demand and its impact on future growth.
4Guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the logistics sector.