Equity Profile

UPST

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsConsumer Finance$2.8B

May5Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:05 PM EDT

Upstart Holdings Misses on EPS, Stock Down 2.84%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.07	$0.43	-135.00%
Revenue	—	$303M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Upstart Holdings Misses on EPS, Stock Down 2.84%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.07	$0.43	-135.00%
Revenue	—	$303M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for the earnings call, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

Upstart Holdings reported a significant earnings miss, with an EPS of -$0.07 compared to the expected $0.43. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.84% following the announcement. The lack of revenue data and guidance may contribute to investor uncertainty moving forward.

Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.43

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to grow its business and attract more customers, which is essential for long-term sustainability.

$303M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit. Operating in the consumer finance sector, Upstart aims to enhance loan approval processes, making it easier for individuals to secure personal loans. As consumer spending and credit access remain key themes in the economy, Upstart's innovative approach could play a significant role in shaping the future of lending.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+184.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Upstart reported an EPS of $0.17, meeting analyst expectations. However, the stock experienced a slight increase of 0.28% the following day, indicating cautious investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about Upstart's upcoming earnings, expecting a solid EPS and revenue growth. However, the market is also cautious given the company's mixed performance in previous quarters.

Bull Case

If Upstart exceeds expectations, particularly in revenue growth, it could signal strong demand for its services and lead to a positive reassessment of its growth potential.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS or revenue targets, it may raise concerns about its business model and ability to compete in the consumer finance space.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.43

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$303M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to grow its business and attract more customers, which is essential for long-term sustainability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Upstart achieve an EPS of $0.43 or higher?

This EPS figure is crucial as it will indicate the company's profitability and impact investor confidence.

How does Upstart's revenue compare to the consensus estimate of $303M?

Revenue performance will be a key indicator of the company's growth trajectory and market demand for its services.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Upstart's ability to leverage AI technology effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Upstart has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting potential for a repeat performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

Recent trends in consumer lending suggest a rebound in demand, which could benefit Upstart's business model.

Key Risk

If the company reports revenue below $271M, it could challenge the optimistic growth narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will either validate the company's growth strategy or highlight potential weaknesses in its business model.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.43 or higher with revenue exceeding $303M would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

Falling short of the EPS estimate and revenue below $271M would raise concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.28%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.3% while UPST has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.8%

30d HV

67.8%

Calls (1.2M)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (749K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Upstart beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest upward move, confirming a positive outlook for growth.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a more significant decline, as historical patterns indicate negative reactions in such scenarios.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on loan approval rates and how they have changed over the past quarter.
2Any updates on partnerships or new technology implementations that could drive growth.
3Management's outlook on consumer demand for personal loans in the current economic environment.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the consumer finance sector.

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Company Snapshot

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence to improve access to credit....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.43

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to grow its business and attract more customers, which is essential for long-term sustainability.

$303M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+184.05%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.10%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Upstart exceeds expectations, particularly in revenue growth, it could signal strong demand for its services and lead to a positive reassessment of its growth potential.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS or revenue targets, it may raise concerns about its business model and ability to compete in the consumer finance space.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.43

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$303M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to grow its business and attract more customers, which is essential for long-term sustainability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Upstart achieve an EPS of $0.43 or higher?

This EPS figure is crucial as it will indicate the company's profitability and impact investor confidence.

How does Upstart's revenue compare to the consensus estimate of $303M?

Revenue performance will be a key indicator of the company's growth trajectory and market demand for its services.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Upstart's ability to leverage AI technology effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Upstart has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting potential for a repeat performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

Recent trends in consumer lending suggest a rebound in demand, which could benefit Upstart's business model.

Key Risk

If the company reports revenue below $271M, it could challenge the optimistic growth narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will either validate the company's growth strategy or highlight potential weaknesses in its business model.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.43 or higher with revenue exceeding $303M would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

Falling short of the EPS estimate and revenue below $271M would raise concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.28%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±15.3% while UPST has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.8%

30d HV

67.8%

Calls (1.2M)P/C Ratio: 0.62Puts (749K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Upstart beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest upward move, confirming a positive outlook for growth.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a more significant decline, as historical patterns indicate negative reactions in such scenarios.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on loan approval rates and how they have changed over the past quarter.
2Any updates on partnerships or new technology implementations that could drive growth.
3Management's outlook on consumer demand for personal loans in the current economic environment.
4Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on profitability.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the consumer finance sector.