Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$0.78
EPS est.
$0.75
EPS surprise
+4.00%
1-day move
-5.62%
US Foods reported earnings with an EPS of $0.78, slightly below the expected $0.81. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, contributing to a negative stock reaction of 5.62%. Investors may be concerned about the lack of revenue transparency and guidance, which could impact future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.78 | $0.81 | +4.00% |
| Revenue | — | $9.6B | — |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
US Foods Holding Corp. is a major food distributor in the Consumer Staples sector, providing a wide range of food products to restaurants and food service operations. As consumer spending on dining out continues to evolve, USFD plays a crucial role in the supply chain, making its performance important for investors to monitor.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, US Foods reported an EPS of $1.04, surpassing estimates by 10.87%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 13.40% the next day.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+9.25%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.50%
Analysts are expecting US Foods to report solid earnings this quarter, with an EPS of $0.81 and revenue of $9.6 billion. The company has consistently beaten earnings expectations in the past.
Bull case
If US Foods continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and demand, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
However, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a negative market reaction, especially given the current economic pressures.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.81Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps assess the company's financial health.
Revenue
9.6BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will US Foods achieve an EPS of $0.81 or higher?
Achieving or exceeding this EPS target will reinforce the company's strong performance trend and could boost investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?
Management's outlook on revenue growth will be crucial for understanding future performance and market conditions.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.76
Est. Rev
$192M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate US Foods' ability to capitalize on increased demand for food services, particularly as dining out rebounds post-pandemic.
Supporting evidence
USFD has consistently beaten EPS expectations, indicating strong operational management.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.
The recent positive earnings surprises could indicate a trend that the market has not fully priced in.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching US Foods' ability to maintain profitability and revenue growth amid economic uncertainties.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.85 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.77 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential challenges ahead.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.77%
Historical Avg
±5.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, indicating uncertainty or anticipation of volatility.
Options are pricing ±6.2% while USFD has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
24.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
111.41%
of float
Insider
0.46%
of float
Holders
905
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Wellington Management Group, LLP
23,009,877 sh · $2.2B
10.64%
46.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If US Foods beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.03%, confirming strong operational strength.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors assess management's commentary and outlook.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline, which could reflect investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
20,845,367 sh · $2.0B
9.64%
2.0%
Boston Partners
18,606,610 sh · $1.8B
8.60%
13.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
10,135,613 sh · $973.5M
4.69%
-0.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
9,960,262 sh · $956.7M
4.60%
0.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.