Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
VSE Corp operates in the aerospace and defense sector, providing maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for military and commercial aircraft. With a market cap of $5 billion, the company plays a crucial role in supporting defense operations and ensuring the safety of air travel, making it relevant in today's geopolitical climate.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue
Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its services.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
6Q
EPS Beat Rate
88%
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.98%
Avg Stock Reaction
+1.16%
In Q4 2025, VSE Corp reported an EPS of $1.16, significantly beating the estimate of $0.88, showcasing strong operational performance. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining 2.06% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect VSE Corp to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.91 and revenue of $310 million. The company has a strong track record of beating earnings expectations, which could influence investor sentiment.
Bull Case
If VSE Corp exceeds the EPS estimate and demonstrates strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its services, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock price.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about future growth and lead to a decline in the stock price.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.91EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue
$310MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its services.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will VSE Corp's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.91?
A beat on EPS could reinforce the company's strong performance history and positively influence stock sentiment.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?
Investors will be keen to understand the company's outlook, especially in light of recent geopolitical tensions affecting defense spending.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating VSE Corp's ability to capitalize on increased defense spending, particularly given its strong track record of beating earnings estimates.
Supporting Evidence
VSE has consistently outperformed earnings expectations, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a significant move of 15.48%, suggesting heightened expectations that may not align with historical performance.
Key Risk
If the company reports an EPS significantly above $0.91, it could challenge the current market expectations.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether VSE Corp can maintain its strong earnings momentum amid potential challenges in the aerospace and defense sector.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.80 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's growth trajectory.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±15.48%
Historical Avg
±2.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.0% while VSEC has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
77.7%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
n=30Fade rate: 2 of 4 (50%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 2 of 4 faded and 2 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.9%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If VSE beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +1.01%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth prospects.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of +2.17% when they miss, indicating investor disappointment.
Preparation
House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
2 buys·0 sells
Members
1
Senate only
Est. Notional
$30,002.00–$100,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Feb 4, 2026 · disclosed Mar 2, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jan 5, 2026 · disclosed Feb 4, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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ARES MGMT CORP Class A