Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
EPS actual
$1.50
EPS est.
$1.35
EPS surprise
+11.03%
1-day move
-0.31%
Waste Connections reported an EPS of $1.50, exceeding expectations by over 11%. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.31%. The lack of revenue data and management commentary may have contributed to investor uncertainty.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.50 | N/A | +11.03% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) is a leading provider of waste management services in North America, focusing on environmentally responsible disposal and recycling. As part of the industrials sector, the company plays a crucial role in sustainability and waste reduction, which are increasingly important themes in today's economy.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Waste Connections reported an EPS of $1.23, beating estimates by 2.93%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 0.90% the following day.
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+3.36%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.32%
Overall expectations for Waste Connections are mixed, with investors keenly watching for signs of continued profitability and growth.
Bull case
The optimistic view hinges on the company's ability to maintain strong EPS growth and expand its revenue through acquisitions and organic growth.
Bear case
Conversely, concerns about rising operational costs and potential regulatory challenges could weigh on the company's performance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, the market will closely watch this metric to gauge ongoing profitability.
Q2
How is Waste Connections managing rising operational costs?
With increasing costs in the waste management industry, insights into cost management will be critical for understanding future margins.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the company's ability to manage costs effectively, especially given its strong historical EPS performance.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting strong operational management.
Options pricing indicates a significant move, which may reflect uncertainty that could be mitigated by strong results.
Key risk
If EPS comes in below $1.20, it could challenge the optimistic narrative surrounding cost management.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory amidst rising costs.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.30 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest strong operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.20 would support the bear case, indicating potential issues with cost management.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.48%
Historical Avg
±0.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.5% while WCN has averaged ±0.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
29.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 19 of 24 (79%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.6% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
91.46%
of float
Insider
0.26%
of float
Holders
1,211
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
15,797,275 sh · $2.5B
6.28%
-0.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Waste Connections beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 0.51%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 0.03%, raising concerns about future performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Royal Bank of Canada
13,188,665 sh · $2.0B
5.24%
8.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
11,232,978 sh · $1.7B
4.47%
0.9%
Bank of Montreal /CAN/
8,665,651 sh · $1.3B
3.44%
6.5%
1832 Asset Management L.P.
7,456,684 sh · $1.2B
2.96%
4.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.