Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Apr 28, 2026
EPS actual
$1.81
EPS est.
$1.75
EPS surprise
+3.55%
1-day move
+0.51%
Waste Management's stronger-than-expected EPS indicates effective cost management and operational performance. The stock's slight increase of 0.51% reflects investor confidence in the company's ability to navigate challenges, despite the lack of revenue data and forward guidance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.81 | $1.74 | +3.55% |
| Revenue | N/A | $6.3B | N/A |
Management expressed satisfaction with the EPS results, highlighting operational efficiency. However, they did not provide specific revenue figures or future guidance.
We are pleased with our EPS performance this quarter.
While we did not provide specific revenue figures, we remain focused on operational efficiency.
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is a leading provider of waste management and environmental services in North America. The company plays a crucial role in managing waste and recycling, which is increasingly important as sustainability becomes a priority for both consumers and businesses.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Waste Management reported an EPS of $1.93, slightly missing estimates. The stock had a modest reaction, gaining 0.11% the following day.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+0.51%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.91%
Analysts expect Waste Management to report earnings that reflect stable demand for waste services, with a consensus EPS of $1.74 and revenue of $6.3 billion.
Bull case
If the company exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and a robust demand for waste management services, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
A miss on EPS or revenue could indicate challenges in maintaining profitability or demand, which might lead to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.74Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$6.3BTotal revenue gives insight into the company's overall sales performance and demand for its services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Waste Management's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.74?
A strong EPS could indicate better-than-expected operational efficiency and demand for services, which would be positively received by the market.
Q2
What commentary will management provide on revenue growth and demand trends?
Insights into revenue growth and demand can help gauge the company's future performance and market position.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the potential for Waste Management to exceed EPS expectations due to strong operational efficiencies that have not been fully recognized.
Supporting evidence
The company has a history of beating EPS estimates 63% of the time, indicating potential for positive surprises.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors are anticipating volatility.
Key risk
If EPS comes in above $1.74, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment around the stock.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be closely watched as they may reflect broader trends in the waste management industry and economic conditions.
Bull confirmed if
EPS exceeding $1.74 with revenue above $6.3B would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
EPS below $1.58 or revenue below $6.2B would raise concerns about demand and profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.6%
Historical Avg
±1.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors expect volatility.
Options are pricing ±4.9% while WM has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
19.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 6 of 17 (35%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 11 of 17 (65%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of -0.4% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
85.77%
of float
Insider
0.25%
of float
Holders
3,081
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
30,733,944 sh · $6.4B
7.69%
1.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Waste Management beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.09% on average, confirming strong demand and efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.95% on average, indicating potential challenges in demand or profitability.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Gates Foundation Trust
26,720,744 sh · $5.6B
6.68%
-3.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
25,179,716 sh · $5.3B
6.30%
0.0%
State Street Corporation
18,008,931 sh · $3.8B
4.51%
2.9%
Capital Research Global Investors
10,438,136 sh · $2.2B
2.61%
19.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.