Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 28, 2026
EPS actual
$2.02
EPS est.
$1.99
EPS surprise
+1.46%
1-day move
+0.63%
Waste Management, Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which contributed to a slight increase in the stock price by 0.63%. However, there was no revenue figure provided, and without additional context from management, it's difficult to assess future performance. Investors may be cautiously optimistic based on the EPS beat, but the lack of guidance leaves some uncertainty.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.02 | N/A | +1.46% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Waste Management, Inc. is a leading provider of waste management and environmental services in North America. The company plays a crucial role in sustainability efforts by managing waste collection, disposal, and recycling, which are increasingly important as environmental concerns grow.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Waste Management reported an EPS of $1.81, beating estimates by 3.55%. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.51% the following day, reflecting a positive market reaction.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+0.51%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.91%
Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Waste Management's upcoming earnings, especially given the company's recent EPS beat. However, there are concerns about potential revenue growth amid economic uncertainties.
Bull case
If Waste Management continues to show strong operational efficiency and expands its customer base, it could lead to significant revenue growth and higher EPS, driving the stock price up.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or faces increased operational costs, it could lead to disappointing earnings and a decline in stock value.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?
EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.
Q2
How is Waste Management addressing potential increases in operational costs?
Understanding how the company plans to manage costs is vital, especially in an inflationary environment, as it directly affects margins and profitability.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Waste Management's ability to manage operational costs effectively, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.
Supporting evidence
The company's historical EPS beat rate of 63% suggests it has a track record of exceeding expectations.
Options pricing indicates a significant move, which may reflect investor uncertainty rather than a clear bearish outlook.
Key risk
If operational costs remain stable or decrease, it could lead to a surprise in EPS that contradicts current market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core thesis this quarter revolves around Waste Management's ability to maintain profitability amid rising costs and economic pressures.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.85 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.75 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential operational challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.33%
Historical Avg
±1.20%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.33% following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing a 5.33% move but the stock has averaged only 1.20% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
20.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 19 of 24 (79%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.6% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
85.77%
of float
Insider
0.25%
of float
Holders
3,081
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
30,733,944 sh · $6.4B
7.69%
1.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Waste Management beats EPS expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by approximately 0.03%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors assess future guidance.
Miss
If the company misses EPS expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.95%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Gates Foundation Trust
26,720,744 sh · $5.6B
6.68%
-3.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
25,179,716 sh · $5.3B
6.30%
0.0%
State Street Corporation
18,008,931 sh · $3.8B
4.51%
2.9%
Capital Research Global Investors
10,438,136 sh · $2.2B
2.61%
19.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.