Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 21, 2026
EPS actual
$0.66
EPS est.
$0.65
EPS surprise
+1.07%
1-day move
-7.27%
Walmart's earnings report shows that the company met expectations on EPS, which led to a slight increase in stock price. However, there was no revenue figure reported, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. The minimal stock reaction suggests that investors may have been expecting the results.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.66 | $0.66 | +1.07% |
| Revenue | N/A | $172.2B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Walmart Inc. is a leading retailer in the consumer staples sector, known for its wide range of merchandise and low prices. As a major player in the retail industry, it plays a crucial role in consumer spending and economic trends.
Last quarter
In Q4-2026, Walmart reported an EPS of $0.74, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock fell 1.38% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+3.35%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.48%
Analysts expect Walmart to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.66 and revenue of $172.2 billion. The market is looking for signs of continued resilience in consumer spending.
Bull case
If Walmart beats earnings expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust consumer demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings estimates or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about consumer spending slowing down, negatively impacting the stock.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.66Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
172.2BRevenue figures show the company's ability to generate sales and are essential for assessing growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Walmart's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.66?
A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and consumer demand, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance will Walmart provide for future revenue growth?
Future revenue guidance will be critical in assessing the company's outlook and ability to navigate changing consumer spending patterns.
—
Est. EPS
$0.20
Est. Rev
$410M
Impl. Move
±9.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Walmart's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences, particularly in e-commerce and grocery sectors.
Supporting evidence
Walmart has consistently beaten EPS estimates, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing a 5.04% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with consensus expectations.
Insider selling activity could indicate confidence in operational performance despite broader market concerns.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds $174B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment on consumer spending.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Walmart can sustain its growth amidst changing consumer behaviors and economic pressures.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating stronger than expected profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.63 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability and consumer demand.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.04%
Historical Avg
±4.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility.
Options are pricing ±4.6% while WMT has averaged ±4.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
21.3%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$416,595.90
3,990 sh
1 insider
Net
$416,595.90
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$416,595.90
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Walmart beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.09%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 4.49%, reflecting concerns about consumer spending and profitability.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
1 buy·2 sells
Members
3
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $104.41
3,990 sh
$416,595.90
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Net selling
1 trade
Net buying
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 27, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 26, 2026 · disclosed Sep 10, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.