Equity Profile

XOM

Exxon Mobil Corporation

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$628.2B

Jul31Fri

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on integrated oil and gas operations. The company explores, produces, and sells oil and natural gas, making it a key contributor to global energy supplies and a significant factor in energy market dynamics.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will look for strong earnings to gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates how well the company is expanding its business and capturing market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

XOM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.10%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Exxon reported an EPS of $2.09, significantly beating expectations by over 96%. However, the stock price fell slightly the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite strong earnings.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Exxon's upcoming earnings, given its strong performance last quarter. However, the market remains wary of potential volatility in oil prices and economic conditions.

Bull Case

If Exxon continues to outperform expectations, particularly in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if oil prices decline or if the company fails to meet earnings expectations, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting investor concerns about profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2 2026?

Given the strong EPS surprise in the last quarter, investors will closely analyze the EPS figure to assess ongoing profitability.

How are current oil prices impacting revenue projections?

Understanding the relationship between oil prices and revenue will be crucial for evaluating Exxon's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Exxon's ability to capitalize on rising oil prices, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Exxon's historical EPS surprise rate is 100%, indicating a consistent ability to exceed expectations.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant volatility.

Recent insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If oil prices rebound significantly, it could lead to much higher earnings than currently anticipated.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Exxon can maintain its strong earnings performance amidst fluctuating oil prices and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS above $2.09 would confirm the bullish sentiment and indicate continued strong performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.50 would signal significant challenges and likely confirm bearish concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.11%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.11%, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.1% while XOM has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

30.7%

Calls (2.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.56Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Exxon beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise, potentially confirming a strong demand outlook and effective cost management.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, focusing on management's commentary about future prospects.

Miss

If Exxon misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, reflecting investor concerns about profitability.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

4 buys·1 sell

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$103,005.00–$245,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on oil price projections and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's outlook on production levels and cost management strategies.
3Any commentary on geopolitical factors affecting oil supply.
4Details on capital expenditures and investment plans for future growth.
5Insights into demand trends in key markets.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will look for strong earnings to gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates how well the company is expanding its business and capturing market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

XOM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+15.10%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.77%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Exxon continues to outperform expectations, particularly in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and effective cost management, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if oil prices decline or if the company fails to meet earnings expectations, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting investor concerns about profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2 2026?

Given the strong EPS surprise in the last quarter, investors will closely analyze the EPS figure to assess ongoing profitability.

How are current oil prices impacting revenue projections?

Understanding the relationship between oil prices and revenue will be crucial for evaluating Exxon's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Exxon's ability to capitalize on rising oil prices, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Exxon's historical EPS surprise rate is 100%, indicating a consistent ability to exceed expectations.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant volatility.

Recent insider buying activity suggests confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If oil prices rebound significantly, it could lead to much higher earnings than currently anticipated.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Exxon can maintain its strong earnings performance amidst fluctuating oil prices and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS above $2.09 would confirm the bullish sentiment and indicate continued strong performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.50 would signal significant challenges and likely confirm bearish concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.11%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.11%, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.1% while XOM has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

30.7%

Calls (2.0M)P/C Ratio: 0.56Puts (1.1M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Exxon beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise, potentially confirming a strong demand outlook and effective cost management.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, focusing on management's commentary about future prospects.

Miss

If Exxon misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, reflecting investor concerns about profitability.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

4 buys·1 sell

Members

House + Senate

Est. Notional

$103,005.00–$245,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on oil price projections and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's outlook on production levels and cost management strategies.
3Any commentary on geopolitical factors affecting oil supply.
4Details on capital expenditures and investment plans for future growth.
5Insights into demand trends in key markets.