Equity Profile

AAON

AAON, Inc.

IndustrialsBuilding Products$9.2B

Aug10Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. operates in the industrial sector, focusing on building products, particularly HVAC systems....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS Growth

Earnings per share growth is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and operational efficiency.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to increase sales and expand its market share, which is vital for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AAON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. operates in the industrial sector, focusing on building products, particularly HVAC systems. As a key player in energy-efficient heating and cooling solutions, the company is positioned to benefit from trends in sustainability and energy conservation.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, AAON reported an EPS of $0.48, significantly beating estimates by 53.35%. The stock reacted positively, rising 31.49% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiency.
Commitment to expanding product offerings.
Plans to enhance customer service and support.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the strong EPS surprise last quarter. However, there are concerns about potential revenue growth amidst economic uncertainties.

Bull Case

If AAON continues to show strong earnings growth and expands its market presence, it could lead to further stock appreciation and investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet growth expectations or faces increased competition, it could negatively impact the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected order backlog for the upcoming quarter?

A strong order backlog can indicate future revenue growth and demand for AAON's products, which is critical for investor confidence.

How does management plan to address potential supply chain challenges?

Supply chain issues could impact production and delivery, affecting revenue and customer satisfaction.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate AAON's ability to capitalize on the growing demand for energy-efficient solutions, particularly in the face of rising energy costs.

Supporting Evidence

Recent strong EPS growth suggests operational resilience.

The options market indicates significant volatility, hinting at potential surprises.

AAON's commitment to expanding product offerings could drive future growth.

Key Risk

If order backlog growth exceeds 15%, it could challenge the current cautious market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to maintain growth amidst economic pressures and supply chain challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Order backlog growth of 15% or more year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in revenue or a backlog reduction would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.24%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened volatility expectations around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±32.2% while AAON has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

96.4%

Calls (9K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (4K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAON beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 8.28%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 9.97%, reflecting disappointment in growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on order backlog and demand trends.
2Management's commentary on supply chain management.
3Any new product launches or innovations.
4Insights into customer acquisition strategies.
5Discussion on cost management and operational efficiency.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. operates in the industrial sector, focusing on building products, particularly HVAC systems....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS Growth

Earnings per share growth is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and operational efficiency.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to increase sales and expand its market share, which is vital for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AAON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, AAON reported an EPS of $0.48, significantly beating estimates by 53.35%. The stock reacted positively, rising 31.49% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiency.
Commitment to expanding product offerings.
Plans to enhance customer service and support.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, given the strong EPS surprise last quarter. However, there are concerns about potential revenue growth amidst economic uncertainties.

Bull Case

If AAON continues to show strong earnings growth and expands its market presence, it could lead to further stock appreciation and investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet growth expectations or faces increased competition, it could negatively impact the stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected order backlog for the upcoming quarter?

A strong order backlog can indicate future revenue growth and demand for AAON's products, which is critical for investor confidence.

How does management plan to address potential supply chain challenges?

Supply chain issues could impact production and delivery, affecting revenue and customer satisfaction.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may underestimate AAON's ability to capitalize on the growing demand for energy-efficient solutions, particularly in the face of rising energy costs.

Supporting Evidence

Recent strong EPS growth suggests operational resilience.

The options market indicates significant volatility, hinting at potential surprises.

AAON's commitment to expanding product offerings could drive future growth.

Key Risk

If order backlog growth exceeds 15%, it could challenge the current cautious market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to maintain growth amidst economic pressures and supply chain challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Order backlog growth of 15% or more year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in revenue or a backlog reduction would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.24%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened volatility expectations around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±32.2% while AAON has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

96.4%

Calls (9K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (4K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAON beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 8.28%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 9.97%, reflecting disappointment in growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on order backlog and demand trends.
2Management's commentary on supply chain management.
3Any new product launches or innovations.
4Insights into customer acquisition strategies.
5Discussion on cost management and operational efficiency.