Equity Profile

AAON

AAON, Inc.

IndustrialsBuilding Products$7.2B

Aug10Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be looking for a strong performance to gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to expand its market share and is vital for assessing overall business performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AAON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. Operating in the industrial sector, the company plays a crucial role in the building products industry, providing energy-efficient solutions that are increasingly important as sustainability and energy costs become key concerns for consumers and businesses alike.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, AAON reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48, significantly beating expectations of $0.31, which resulted in a strong stock price increase of 31.49% the following day. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing product efficiency and sustainability.
Commitment to expanding market reach and customer base.
Plans to invest in new technologies to improve HVAC solutions.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, there is a cautious optimism surrounding AAON's upcoming earnings report, particularly after their strong performance last quarter. Investors are hopeful for continued growth in EPS and revenue.

Bull Case

If AAON can maintain or exceed its previous EPS beat, it could signal robust demand for its products and potentially lead to further stock price appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the EPS figure for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.48?

This will be a key indicator of the company's profitability and growth trajectory, influencing investor sentiment significantly.

What guidance can management provide regarding revenue growth and market conditions going forward?

Understanding future revenue expectations will help investors assess the company's ability to sustain growth in a competitive market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for AAON to capitalize on increasing demand for energy-efficient HVAC solutions, especially given recent trends in sustainability.

Supporting Evidence

AAON's recent EPS beat suggests strong operational execution that may not be fully reflected in current market expectations.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders anticipate a larger reaction than what historical averages suggest.

The company's commitment to innovation and efficiency could drive better-than-expected results, particularly in a growing market.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.50, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for continued growth against the backdrop of rising costs and competitive pressures in the HVAC industry.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with demand or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.24%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 32%, indicating that traders expect considerable volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±32.2% while AAON has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

96.4%

Calls (9K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (4K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAON beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a stock increase of around 8.28% on the following day, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may see a muted response, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 9.97%, indicating disappointment among investors.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or innovations in energy efficiency.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and demand trends in the HVAC sector.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on gross margins.
4Any specific guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
5Discussion around competitive positioning and market share growth.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be looking for a strong performance to gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to expand its market share and is vital for assessing overall business performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AAON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing product efficiency and sustainability.
Commitment to expanding market reach and customer base.
Plans to invest in new technologies to improve HVAC solutions.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If AAON can maintain or exceed its previous EPS beat, it could signal robust demand for its products and potentially lead to further stock price appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the EPS figure for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.48?

This will be a key indicator of the company's profitability and growth trajectory, influencing investor sentiment significantly.

What guidance can management provide regarding revenue growth and market conditions going forward?

Understanding future revenue expectations will help investors assess the company's ability to sustain growth in a competitive market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for AAON to capitalize on increasing demand for energy-efficient HVAC solutions, especially given recent trends in sustainability.

Supporting Evidence

AAON's recent EPS beat suggests strong operational execution that may not be fully reflected in current market expectations.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders anticipate a larger reaction than what historical averages suggest.

The company's commitment to innovation and efficiency could drive better-than-expected results, particularly in a growing market.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $0.50, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for continued growth against the backdrop of rising costs and competitive pressures in the HVAC industry.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with demand or cost management.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.24%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 32%, indicating that traders expect considerable volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±32.2% while AAON has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

96.4%

Calls (9K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (4K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAON beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a stock increase of around 8.28% on the following day, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious guidance, the stock may see a muted response, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 9.97%, indicating disappointment among investors.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or innovations in energy efficiency.
2Management's commentary on market conditions and demand trends in the HVAC sector.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their impact on gross margins.
4Any specific guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
5Discussion around competitive positioning and market share growth.