Equity Profile

AAON

AAON, Inc.

IndustrialsBuilding Products$10.9B

Aug10Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a manufacturer of energy-efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is critical for assessing demand for AAON's products and overall business health.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AAON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a manufacturer of energy-efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. Operating in the industrials sector, AAON plays a crucial role in the building products industry, focusing on sustainable solutions that meet growing environmental standards.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, AAON reported an EPS of $0.48, significantly beating expectations of $0.31, which resulted in a strong stock price increase of 31.49% the following day. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are anticipating a continuation of AAON's strong performance following the significant EPS beat last quarter. However, the lack of revenue guidance raises questions about sustainability.

Bull Case

If AAON can replicate its previous earnings surprise and show strong revenue growth, it could solidify its market position and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provide clear guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, particularly given the high implied volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to the previous quarter's $0.48?

Given the significant EPS surprise last quarter, the market will closely watch for whether AAON can maintain or improve its earnings performance.

What guidance will AAON provide regarding revenue growth and gross margins?

Clear guidance on revenue and margins will be crucial for investor confidence, especially in light of the previous quarter's lack of revenue disclosure.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating AAON's ability to sustain its earnings momentum, especially given the strong EPS surprise last quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 32.24% move, indicating significant uncertainty that could be unwarranted if AAON meets or exceeds expectations.

AAON's historical performance shows a 63% beat rate, suggesting a stronger likelihood of positive outcomes than the current sentiment reflects.

Key Risk

If AAON's EPS comes in above $0.50, it could challenge the cautious outlook and shift investor sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be pivotal in determining whether AAON can sustain its recent momentum and address investor concerns about revenue transparency.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher, along with revenue growth of at least 10% year-over-year.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30, indicating potential issues with profitability or demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.24%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±32.2% while AAON has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

96.4%

Calls (9K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (4K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 19 of 24 (79%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.6% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.4M

14,804 sh

2 insiders

Net

$1.4M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 5 open-market trades

Chief Administration OfficerKidwell Casey
$470,250.00

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAON beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 8.28%, confirming strong operational momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 9.97%, as investors react negatively to disappointing performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on revenue growth projections for the upcoming quarters.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on gross margins.
3Insights into demand trends for HVAC products in the current market environment.
4Management's outlook on potential challenges or opportunities in the building products sector.
5Responses to questions regarding the lack of revenue disclosure in the previous quarter.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

AAON, Inc. is a manufacturer of energy-efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is critical for assessing demand for AAON's products and overall business health.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AAON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If AAON can replicate its previous earnings surprise and show strong revenue growth, it could solidify its market position and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provide clear guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, particularly given the high implied volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to the previous quarter's $0.48?

Given the significant EPS surprise last quarter, the market will closely watch for whether AAON can maintain or improve its earnings performance.

What guidance will AAON provide regarding revenue growth and gross margins?

Clear guidance on revenue and margins will be crucial for investor confidence, especially in light of the previous quarter's lack of revenue disclosure.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating AAON's ability to sustain its earnings momentum, especially given the strong EPS surprise last quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 32.24% move, indicating significant uncertainty that could be unwarranted if AAON meets or exceeds expectations.

AAON's historical performance shows a 63% beat rate, suggesting a stronger likelihood of positive outcomes than the current sentiment reflects.

Key Risk

If AAON's EPS comes in above $0.50, it could challenge the cautious outlook and shift investor sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be pivotal in determining whether AAON can sustain its recent momentum and address investor concerns about revenue transparency.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher, along with revenue growth of at least 10% year-over-year.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30, indicating potential issues with profitability or demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.24%

Historical Avg

±10.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±32.2% while AAON has averaged ±10.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

96.4%

Calls (9K)P/C Ratio: 0.08Puts (4K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.4M

14,804 sh

2 insiders

Net

$1.4M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 5 open-market trades

Chief Administration OfficerKidwell Casey
$470,250.00

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AAON beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 8.28%, confirming strong operational momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 9.97%, as investors react negatively to disappointing performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on revenue growth projections for the upcoming quarters.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on gross margins.
3Insights into demand trends for HVAC products in the current market environment.
4Management's outlook on potential challenges or opportunities in the building products sector.
5Responses to questions regarding the lack of revenue disclosure in the previous quarter.