Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, Aug 10, 2026
EPS actual
$0.69
EPS est.
$0.52
EPS surprise
+31.93%
1-day move
-5.89%
AAON's strong earnings report shows significant growth in both EPS and revenue, driven by robust sales, particularly in their BASX brand. However, the stock reacted negatively, dropping 5.89%, which may reflect concerns about margin compression and the overall market environment despite the positive growth indicators. The raised sales guidance suggests management's confidence in continued growth, supported by a strong backlog.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.69 | N/A | +31.93% |
| Revenue | $627 million | N/A | N/A |
| Year-over-Year Revenue Growth | 101% | N/A | N/A |
| BASX-branded Sales Growth | 216% | N/A | N/A |
| AAON-branded Sales Growth | 40% | N/A | N/A |
Management expressed optimism about future growth, citing a significant increase in sales and a strong backlog. They anticipate margin improvements in the second half of 2026.
Management raised full-year sales guidance to 55-60% growth.
Backlog remains nearly double prior year levels, indicating strong future growth potential.
AAON, Inc. is a company in the industrials sector that specializes in manufacturing energy-efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. As the demand for sustainable building products continues to rise, AAON's focus on energy efficiency positions it well in a market increasingly concerned with environmental impact.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, AAON reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48, significantly beating estimates of $0.31, resulting in a 31.49% stock increase the following day. This strong performance suggests the company is effectively managing its operations despite market challenges.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+5.70%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.93%
Overall, expectations are mixed as AAON has shown strong earnings surprises in the past but also faced significant misses. Investors will be keen to see if the company can maintain its momentum.
Bull case
The optimistic view hinges on AAON continuing its trend of beating earnings expectations, which could lead to increased investor confidence and stock price appreciation.
Bear case
Conversely, if AAON fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining demand, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?
The EPS figure will be critical in determining if AAON can maintain its recent trend of beating expectations, which has historically driven stock price increases.
Q2
How is AAON addressing supply chain challenges?
Supply chain issues can significantly impact production and profitability, and clarity on this topic will be essential for assessing future performance.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±5.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating AAON's ability to leverage its recent operational improvements and energy-efficient product lines to drive revenue growth this quarter.
Supporting evidence
AAON's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational management, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in above $0.50, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to a re-evaluation of growth potential.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core thesis this quarter revolves around AAON's ability to sustain its earnings growth amidst potential market volatility.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.30 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in meeting market expectations.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±32.24%
Historical Avg
±11.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±32.2% while AAON has averaged ±11.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
96.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 19 of 24 (79%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.6% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
85.57%
of float
Insider
16.73%
of float
Holders
631
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
6,686,241 sh · $582.6M
8.11%
1.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AAON beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day stock increase of around +8.28%, confirming positive momentum.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -9.97% in stock price, as seen in previous quarters.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Wellington Management Group, LLP
5,772,476 sh · $503.0M
7.00%
-27.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,121,771 sh · $272.0M
3.79%
0.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,938,836 sh · $256.1M
3.56%
1.1%
State Street Corporation
2,625,540 sh · $228.8M
3.18%
27.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.