Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Aug 19, 2026
EPS actual
$3.45
EPS est.
$3.33
EPS surprise
+3.57%
1-day move
-0.89%
Analog Devices reported strong earnings with a notable EPS beat and record revenue. Despite this positive performance, the stock fell by 0.89%, possibly due to profit-taking or broader market conditions. The company is optimistic about future growth, particularly in AI and industrial sectors, which could drive further revenue increases.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $3.45 | $3.33 | +3.57% |
| Revenue | $4.02B | $3.9B | N/A |
| Gross Margin | 72.5% | N/A | N/A |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.9B | N/A | N/A |
Management expressed confidence in continued strong demand across various sectors, particularly in AI and industrial markets. They anticipate double-digit growth in the coming years.
Management expects Q4 revenue of $4.3B, driven by strong demand in AI, defense, and industrial sectors.
Data center revenue grew over 100% YoY, now accounting for 80% of communications revenue.
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is a leading company in the semiconductor sector, specializing in high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing technologies. As demand for advanced technologies like AI and IoT continues to grow, ADI plays a crucial role in providing the components that power these innovations.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, ADI reported an EPS of $3.09, exceeding expectations by 6.81%. However, the stock fell by 3.92% the following day, indicating mixed market sentiment.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+6.27%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.55%
Analysts expect ADI to report strong earnings, with a consensus EPS of $3.33. The market is closely watching how the company navigates current economic conditions and demand fluctuations.
Bull case
If ADI beats earnings expectations, it could signal robust demand for its products, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if ADI fails to meet expectations, it may indicate weakening demand, which could negatively impact investor sentiment.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$3.33Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$3.9BTotal revenue is vital for understanding the company's sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ADI's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $3.33?
A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in the company's growth and profitability, potentially boosting the stock price.
Q2
What insights can ADI provide about revenue growth in key segments like AI and IoT?
Understanding revenue trends in these high-demand areas will be crucial for assessing future growth potential and market positioning.
—
Est. EPS
$5.07
Est. Rev
$6.8B
Impl. Move
±15.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street is underestimating ADI's potential for revenue growth in emerging markets, particularly in AI and IoT applications, which could drive higher-than-expected earnings.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.
Recent trends in semiconductor demand have shown resilience, contrary to broader market concerns.
Key risk
If revenue from AI and IoT segments exceeds $1B, it could significantly alter market perceptions and expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects ADI's ability to capitalize on growing markets while managing costs effectively.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $3.40 or higher would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $3.29 could signal weakening demand and raise concerns about future growth.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±20.26%
Historical Avg
±4.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±20.3% while ADI has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
41.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors
Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.3%, with a raw directional average of -0.4% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$5.9M
14,700 sh
4 insiders
Net
$5.9M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 4 open-market trades
$4.0M
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ADI beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.89%, confirming strong demand and positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting a potential drop of around -4.53%, raising concerns about demand and profitability.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
5
1 buy·4 sells
Members
4
House + Senate
Est. Notional
$5,005.00–$75,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$833,962.00
Net selling
$631,620.00
Net selling
$498,028.80
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $396.94
10,000 sh
$4.0M
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $416.98
2,000 sh
$833,962.00
Oct 6, 2026 · @ $421.08
1,500 sh
$631,620.00
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $415.02
1,200 sh
$498,028.80
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
1 trade
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 4, 2026 · disclosed Oct 1, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 30, 2026 · disclosed Jul 15, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 12, 2026 · disclosed Jul 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded May 19, 2026 · disclosed Jun 3, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.