Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$0.23
EPS est.
$0.21
EPS surprise
+9.52%
1-day move
+1.35%
ADT's earnings report shows that the company met expectations on EPS, leading to a positive stock reaction of 1.35%. However, there was no revenue reported, which leaves some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS beat, but the lack of revenue details could lead to cautious sentiment moving forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.23 | $0.23 | +9.52% |
| Revenue | — | $1.3B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
ADT Inc. is a leading provider of security and automation solutions for homes and businesses. As part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, ADT plays a crucial role in the growing demand for safety and smart home technologies.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, ADT reported an EPS of $0.23, beating expectations by 21%. The stock reacted positively, gaining over 5% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+18.20%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.67%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about ADT's upcoming earnings, expecting it to meet or slightly exceed EPS and revenue estimates.
Bull case
If ADT can showcase strong customer growth and effective cost management, it may exceed expectations and see a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to demonstrate solid revenue growth or faces increased competition, it could disappoint investors.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.23Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be looking for ADT to meet or exceed expectations.
Revenue
$1.3BRevenue growth signals the company's ability to attract and retain customers, which is vital for future growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ADT's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.23?
A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Q2
What insights will management provide on revenue growth trends?
Understanding revenue growth will help gauge ADT's market position and future prospects.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±13.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate ADT's ability to leverage new smart home technologies, which could drive higher customer acquisition.
Supporting evidence
ADT's recent investments in technology may not be fully reflected in current revenue expectations.
The strong historical EPS beat rate suggests that ADT has consistently outperformed expectations.
Market sentiment may be overly cautious given the competitive landscape.
Key risk
If ADT's revenue growth falls short of $1.3B, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating ADT's ability to maintain its growth trajectory amidst competitive pressures.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.24 or higher, coupled with strong revenue growth, would confirm the bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.23 or stagnant revenue growth would support the bearish case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.67%
Historical Avg
±7.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±12.7% while ADT has averaged ±7.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
29.6%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
110.27%
of float
Insider
1.87%
of float
Holders
601
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co
133,333,333 sh · $840.0M
19.73%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ADT beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.39%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating a possible drop based on past reactions.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
72,164,639 sh · $454.6M
10.68%
15.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
49,552,024 sh · $312.2M
7.33%
8.3%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
43,246,525 sh · $272.5M
6.40%
8.4%
LSV Asset Management
31,846,158 sh · $200.6M
4.71%
6.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.