Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$0.65
EPS est.
$0.47
EPS surprise
+39.19%
1-day move
+3.43%
Alarm.com reported a strong earnings per share that exceeded expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction of 3.43%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may view the EPS beat as a sign of operational strength, but the lack of revenue data could raise questions about future growth.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.65 | $0.60 | +39.19% |
| Revenue | N/A | $251M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is a technology company that provides cloud-based services for security and automation systems. As a key player in the information technology sector, it focuses on smart home and business solutions, which are increasingly relevant as consumer interest in home security and automation grows.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Alarm.com reported an EPS of $0.72, significantly exceeding expectations. However, the stock reacted slightly negatively, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the strong earnings.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+51.46%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.11%
Analysts expect Alarm.com to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.60 and revenue of $251 million. The company has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, which may lead to positive sentiment.
Bull case
If Alarm.com continues its trend of exceeding earnings expectations, it could see a significant stock price increase, driven by investor confidence in its growth strategy.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to meet even the lowered expectations, it could face a sharp decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.60Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.
Revenue
$251MRevenue growth is essential for understanding the company's market demand and overall business health.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.60?
A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance history and could boost investor confidence.
Q2
What are the management's comments on revenue growth and market expansion?
Insights into revenue growth and market strategy will be crucial for understanding future performance and investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
$0.97
Est. Rev
$754M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Alarm.com's ability to capitalize on the growing demand for smart home solutions, which could lead to stronger revenue growth than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
The company's historical EPS surprises indicate a consistent ability to outperform expectations.
Options pricing suggests a higher volatility than what has been realized in past quarters, indicating potential for significant movement.
Recent trends in consumer spending on home automation could drive unexpected revenue growth.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly exceeds the expected $251 million, it could challenge the current consensus outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory against potential economic headwinds.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.65 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.56 would support the bear case, suggesting potential issues in revenue generation.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.39%
Historical Avg
±1.7%
The options market is pricing in a move of about 3.39%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±3.4% while ALRM has averaged ±1.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
36.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.83%
of float
Insider
5.59%
of float
Holders
451
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
9,492,105 sh · $519.0M
19.19%
3.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Alarm.com beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.03%, confirming strong operational momentum.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors await further guidance, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Miss
If the company misses earnings expectations, the stock could drop, potentially reflecting a decline of around 1.41% based on historical patterns.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
4,035,026 sh · $220.6M
8.16%
2.0%
Disciplined Growth Investors, Inc.
3,585,614 sh · $196.1M
7.25%
9.7%
Bank of Montreal /CAN/
3,455,190 sh · $188.9M
6.99%
30.0%
State Street Corporation
2,188,123 sh · $119.6M
4.42%
7.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.