Financials·Insurance Brokers·$2.5B
The Baldwin Insurance A (BWIN) operates in the financial sector, specifically focusing on insurance brokerage services. As a player in the insurance industry, it plays a crucial role in facilitating risk management for individuals and businesses, which is especially important in today's uncertain economic climate.
EPS
Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
7Q
EPS Beat Rate
100%
Avg EPS Surprise
+60.92%
Avg Stock Reaction
+2.55%
In Q4-2025, Baldwin Insurance reported an EPS of $0.31, significantly exceeding expectations by 82.35%. This strong performance led to a 9.15% increase in stock price the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Baldwin Insurance's upcoming earnings, expecting solid EPS and revenue figures. The company has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates.
Bull Case
If Baldwin Insurance continues its trend of exceeding expectations, it could see a strong stock price increase, reflecting investor confidence in its growth potential.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet the consensus estimates, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the high expectations.
EPS
$0.63Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$524MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.63?
Given Baldwin's history of beating EPS estimates, this figure will be critical in determining market reaction.
Q2
What are the revenue figures compared to the expected $524M?
Revenue performance is essential for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market demand.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Baldwin's ability to leverage its recent operational improvements, which could lead to better-than-expected results.
Supporting Evidence
Baldwin has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong operational execution.
The options market is pricing in a larger move, suggesting that traders expect significant news or performance.
Historical performance shows that Baldwin's stock tends to react positively to earnings beats.
Key Risk
If revenue comes in below $500M, it could undermine the bullish narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching Baldwin's ability to maintain its growth momentum, especially after a series of strong earnings surprises.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.60 would suggest a potential downturn and confirm the bear case.
Implied Move
±8.74%
Historical Avg
±2.5%
The options market is pricing in a larger-than-average move, indicating heightened volatility expectations around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.7% while BWIN has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials
n=30Fade rate: 0 of 30 (0%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.5%, with a raw directional average of +0.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Baldwin beats estimates, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.55%, confirming strong market confidence.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a significant decline, with historical patterns suggesting a drop of around 2.55%.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO
May 1, 2026