Post-earnings recap
Reported
Fri, Jul 17, 2026
EPS actual
$2.43
EPS est.
$2.34
EPS surprise
+3.76%
1-day move
-3.78%
Autoliv's earnings report showed a slight miss on EPS expectations, but revenue figures were not disclosed. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.78%, likely due to the revenue miss and lack of guidance. Investors may be concerned about future performance without clear direction from management.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.43 | $2.46 | +3.76% |
| Revenue | — | $2.8B | — |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) is a leading supplier of automotive safety systems, including airbags and seatbelts. As a key player in the Consumer Discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending and automotive industry trends.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Autoliv reported an EPS of $2.05, exceeding expectations by 15.69%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 6.82% the following day.
EPS beat streak
7Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+9.84%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.10%
Analysts expect Autoliv to report strong earnings this quarter, driven by ongoing demand for automotive safety products. However, there are concerns about potential supply chain issues.
Bull case
If Autoliv can meet or exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal strong operational efficiency and robust market demand.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company faces supply chain disruptions or fails to meet earnings expectations, it could lead to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$2.46Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$2.8BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Autoliv's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $2.46?
This figure is critical as it reflects the company's profitability and can significantly influence investor sentiment.
Q2
How will supply chain challenges impact revenue, expected at $2.8B?
Any commentary on supply chain issues will be closely watched, as it could affect future sales and operational stability.
Est. EPS
$1.71
Est. Rev
$21.8B
Impl. Move
±9.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the impact of recent improvements in production efficiency, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.
Supporting evidence
Autoliv's recent operational changes may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.
The options market suggests a higher volatility expectation, indicating that traders anticipate significant news.
Historical performance shows that the company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting potential for another surprise.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS significantly above $2.50, it could challenge the current market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Autoliv can maintain its growth trajectory amid potential supply chain disruptions.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $2.50 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong demand and cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.25 would support the bear case, suggesting potential operational or market challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.79%
Historical Avg
±4.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±9.8% while ALV has averaged ±4.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
35.3%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.95%
of float
Insider
0.37%
of float
Holders
565
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Cevian Capital II Gp Ltd
6,298,508 sh · $696.1M
8.60%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Autoliv beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.5%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors weigh future guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
4,934,535 sh · $545.4M
6.74%
2.0%
Swedbank AB
3,391,457 sh · $374.8M
4.63%
29.4%
FMR, LLC
2,463,913 sh · $272.3M
3.36%
-3.5%
FIL LTD
2,388,201 sh · $263.9M
3.26%
-0.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.