Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$8.29
EPS est.
$7.85
EPS surprise
+5.55%
1-day move
+1.50%
Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG) is a financial services company that specializes in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $10 billion, AMG plays a crucial role in managing investments for a variety of clients, including institutions and high-net-worth individuals, which is important in today's fluctuating financial markets.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, AMG reported an EPS of $8.23, beating estimates by 1.64%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, and the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.22% the following day.
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+0.86%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.18%
Analysts expect AMG to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $8.21. The market is keenly watching for any updates on revenue growth and profitability.
Bull case
If AMG beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its asset management services, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if AMG misses EPS estimates or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate a challenging financial environment, potentially leading to a stock decline.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$8.21Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$620MTotal revenue gives insight into the company's overall performance and growth in asset management.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will AMG's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $8.21?
A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and investor confidence, impacting stock price positively.
Q2
What revenue figure will AMG report, and how does it compare to the consensus of $620M?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing the company's growth trajectory and overall health in the asset management sector.
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Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
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Impl. Move
±13.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate AMG's ability to capitalize on recent market trends in asset management, as evidenced by its recent strong EPS surprises.
Supporting evidence
AMG has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past quarters, indicating potential for continued strong performance.
The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that investors expect more volatility than the consensus reflects.
Key risk
If AMG's revenue exceeds $650M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will clarify AMG's ability to maintain profitability and growth in a competitive market.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $8.50 or higher, alongside revenue exceeding $650M, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $7.40 or revenue falling short of $585M would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±16.41%
Historical Avg
±3.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±16.4% while AMG has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
28.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
100.58%
of float
Insider
4.23%
of float
Holders
731
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
2,772,736 sh · $1.0B
10.72%
-3.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AMG beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction averaging +3.39%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously as investors await further guidance, potentially leading to a muted response.
Miss
A miss on EPS or revenue could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of -4.23% following such outcomes.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Morgan Stanley
1,487,219 sh · $560.8M
5.75%
-14.2%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
1,391,836 sh · $524.8M
5.38%
2.4%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,151,085 sh · $434.1M
4.45%
-2.0%
Boston Partners
1,001,967 sh · $377.8M
3.87%
3.2%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.