Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Est. EPS
$5.78
Est. revenue
$10.0B
Implied move
±7.0%
EPS beat rate
100%
Amgen Inc. is a leading biotechnology company that focuses on developing innovative therapies for serious illnesses. Operating in the Health Care sector, Amgen plays a crucial role in advancing medical treatments and improving patient outcomes, particularly in areas like oncology and cardiovascular diseases.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, Amgen reported an EPS of $6.29, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining nearly 3% the following day.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+11.68%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.07%
Analysts are expecting Amgen to continue its strong performance with an EPS of $5.78 and revenue of $10.0B for Q3-2026. The company has consistently beaten earnings estimates in recent quarters.
Bull case
If Amgen can deliver another earnings surprise, it may further strengthen investor confidence and drive the stock price higher, especially given its recent track record of exceeding expectations.
Bear case
On the downside, any miss on earnings or revenue could raise concerns about the sustainability of its growth, potentially leading to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$5.78Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and reflects the company's ability to generate profit for shareholders.
Revenue
$10.0BTotal revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Amgen's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $5.78?
A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance trend and could lead to a positive stock reaction.
Q2
What insights will management provide regarding revenue growth and product demand?
Understanding revenue drivers is crucial for assessing the company's future growth potential and market positioning.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±8.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Amgen's ability to innovate and capture market share, particularly in its key therapeutic areas.
Supporting evidence
Amgen has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
Recent product launches have shown positive market reception, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key risk
If Amgen's new products show stronger than expected demand, it could significantly alter revenue projections.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it could either reinforce Amgen's growth narrative or highlight potential weaknesses in its business model.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $6.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $5.50 would support the bear case, raising concerns about growth sustainability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.95%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility.
Options are pricing ±7.0% while AMGN has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
40.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
85.02%
of float
Insider
0.23%
of float
Holders
3,987
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
49,362,016 sh · $20.4B
9.13%
4.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Amgen beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.07% on the first day, confirming the positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.0% on the first day.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
5
2 buys·3 sells
Members
3
House + Senate
Est. Notional
$19,005.00–$110,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
35,250,101 sh · $14.6B
6.52%
0.7%
State Street Corporation
30,560,537 sh · $12.6B
5.65%
0.0%
Capital World Investors
29,075,329 sh · $12.0B
5.38%
-0.7%
Invesco Ltd.
16,320,446 sh · $6.7B
3.02%
2.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
1 trade
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 22, 2026 · disclosed Oct 1, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 26, 2026 · disclosed Sep 5, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 12, 2026 · disclosed Sep 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 5, 2026 · disclosed Jun 12, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Apr 17, 2026 · disclosed May 8, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.