Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±22.4%
EPS beat rate
50%
—
Est. EPS
$1.57
Est. Rev
$23.0B
Impl. Move
±5.7%
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on renewable energy and utility services. As a player in the multi-utilities industry, it aims to provide sustainable energy solutions, which are increasingly important in today's climate-conscious market.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, AQN reported an EPS of $0.04, missing expectations by 20%. The stock reacted negatively, declining 0.17% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+12.67%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.02%
Overall, investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report due to recent misses. The market is looking for signs of recovery in profitability and growth.
Bull case
If AQN can beat EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to miss expectations, it may raise concerns about its growth strategy and operational challenges.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Expected to be around $0.05EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its operations and market share, crucial for long-term success.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS meet or exceed $0.05, indicating a recovery in profitability?
A strong EPS could signal a positive shift in the company's financial health, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What are the growth figures for customer acquisition this quarter?
Customer growth is vital for future revenue, and any significant increase could indicate successful strategies in place.
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating AQN's potential for a turnaround, as recent operational changes could lead to improved profitability.
Supporting evidence
Despite recent misses, AQN has a history of strong EPS surprises, indicating potential for recovery.
Management's focus on renewable energy projects may position the company favorably in a growing market.
The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that investors are bracing for a surprise.
Key risk
If EPS exceeds $0.05, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results are pivotal as they will reflect the company's ability to bounce back from recent misses and demonstrate growth.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.05 or higher would confirm the bull case, suggesting a recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.04 would reinforce the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±22.44%
Historical Avg
±4.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock price, indicating uncertainty about the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±22.4% while AQN has averaged ±4.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
17.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities
Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Utilities in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.2% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
71.37%
of float
Insider
0.03%
of float
Holders
351
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Edgepoint Investment Group Inc.
88,374,416 sh · $447.2M
11.48%
8.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AQN beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.96%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with history suggesting an average drop of about 0.91%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Customer Growth
An increase in customers indicates the company's effectiveness in attracting and retaining clients, impacting future revenue.
Starboard Value LP
57,189,420 sh · $289.4M
7.43%
Flat
FIL LTD
39,334,903 sh · $199.0M
5.11%
3.2%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
22,524,576 sh · $114.0M
2.93%
0.7%
Bank of Montreal /CAN/
20,655,228 sh · $104.5M
2.68%
2.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.