Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, Apr 27, 2026
EPS actual
$0.07
EPS est.
$0.27
EPS surprise
-74.07%
1-day move
+2.21%
The earnings report indicates that Alliance Resource Partners faced significant challenges, leading to a notable miss on EPS. Despite this, the stock rose by 2.59%, which may reflect investor optimism about the company's long-term strategies. The lack of revenue data and guidance leaves some uncertainty about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.07 | $0.28 | -74.07% |
| Revenue | N/A | $513M | N/A |
Overall, management expressed concern about current market conditions. They highlighted their commitment to navigating these challenges.
Management acknowledged the challenges faced during the quarter.
They emphasized ongoing efforts to improve operational efficiency.
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) operates in the energy sector, focusing on coal and consumable fuels. As a significant player in the coal industry, its performance is closely tied to energy demand and regulatory changes, making it an important company to watch as energy markets evolve.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, ARLP reported an EPS of $0.64, exceeding estimates by 5.44%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.65% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-22.84%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.03%
Analysts expect a mixed outlook for ARLP, with a consensus EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $513 million. The market is keen to see if the company can continue its recent trend of beating earnings expectations.
Bull case
If ARLP exceeds EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and increased demand for coal, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if ARLP misses EPS expectations, it may indicate challenges in cost management or declining demand, which could negatively impact investor sentiment.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.28Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
513MRevenue reflects the total sales and is crucial for understanding the company's market position and growth trajectory.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ARLP's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.28?
A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth given the consensus of $513 million?
Understanding revenue trends will help assess the company's market position and future growth potential.
Est. EPS
$1.56
Est. Rev
$20.5B
Impl. Move
±1.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate ARLP's ability to capitalize on rising coal demand due to supply constraints in other regions.
Supporting evidence
Recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in EPS estimates.
Coal prices have shown resilience, which could positively impact revenue.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.
Key risk
If ARLP's revenue exceeds $550 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether ARLP can sustain its recent earnings momentum amid fluctuating energy prices.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.20 would confirm the bear case, suggesting significant operational challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.1%
Historical Avg
±2.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±8.1% while ARLP has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
25.9%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
16.33%
of float
Insider
29.35%
of float
Holders
197
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Morgan Stanley
3,411,513 sh · $83.9M
2.65%
-29.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ARLP beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.26%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.97%, reflecting disappointment in the company's performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
1 buy·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$16,002.00–$65,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Progeny 3, Inc.
3,248,264 sh · $79.9M
2.52%
0.6%
Magnolia Group, LLC
1,262,583 sh · $31.1M
0.98%
-10.5%
Atlanta Consulting Group Advisors, LLC
1,178,592 sh · $29.0M
0.92%
-0.1%
Lido Advisors, LLC
1,096,756 sh · $27.0M
0.85%
100.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Jun 18, 2026 · disclosed Jul 10, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded May 15, 2026 · disclosed Jun 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.