Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.82
Est. revenue
$590M
Implied move
±7.4%
EPS beat rate
25%
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) is a leading coal producer in the U.S., primarily focused on the energy sector. The company plays a significant role in the coal and consumable fuels industry, which is vital for electricity generation and industrial processes.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, ARLP reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly missing the estimate of $0.62. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.72% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-22.84%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.03%
Analysts expect ARLP to report a modest increase in EPS and revenue this quarter. The market is closely watching for any signs of operational efficiency and demand trends.
Bull case
If ARLP beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in coal demand, leading to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its operational challenges and the overall health of the coal market.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
0.82EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
590MRevenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to generate sales and sustain operations.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ARLP's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.82?
A beat on EPS would indicate improved profitability and could boost investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue projections for the upcoming quarter compared to the consensus of $590M?
Revenue performance will be critical in assessing demand trends and operational efficiency.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±7.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for ARLP to capitalize on recent coal price increases, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.
Supporting evidence
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating investor uncertainty.
Recent coal price trends have shown resilience, which may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.
Key risk
If ARLP reports EPS above $0.85, it would challenge the current bearish sentiment and indicate stronger market positioning.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining ARLP's trajectory amid fluctuating coal demand and pricing pressures.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.85 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and demand recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.78 would suggest ongoing challenges and could lead to a negative market reaction.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.55%
Historical Avg
±2.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.4% while ARLP has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
13.9%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
16.33%
of float
Insider
29.35%
of float
Holders
197
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Morgan Stanley
3,411,513 sh · $83.9M
2.65%
-29.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ARLP beats estimates, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.89%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.
In line / cautious
A result in line with expectations may lead to a muted response, as investors await further clarity on future guidance.
Miss
If ARLP misses expectations, the stock could see a minimal reaction of around 0.08%, but concerns about operational issues may linger.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
1 buy·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$16,002.00–$65,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Progeny 3, Inc.
3,248,264 sh · $79.9M
2.52%
0.6%
Magnolia Group, LLC
1,262,583 sh · $31.1M
0.98%
-10.5%
Atlanta Consulting Group Advisors, LLC
1,178,592 sh · $29.0M
0.92%
-0.1%
Lido Advisors, LLC
1,096,756 sh · $27.0M
0.85%
100.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Jun 18, 2026 · disclosed Jul 10, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded May 15, 2026 · disclosed Jun 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.