Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 13, 2026
EPS actual
$0.09
EPS est.
$1.02
EPS surprise
-91.02%
1-day move
+8.18%
Alibaba's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which is concerning for investors. However, the stock reacted positively, rising by 8.18%. This increase may be attributed to market sentiment or other factors not directly related to the earnings results.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.09 | $5.74 | -91.02% |
| Revenue | — | $247.1B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is a leading e-commerce and technology company based in China, operating in the consumer discretionary sector. It plays a significant role in online retail, cloud computing, and digital entertainment, making it a key player in the evolving landscape of consumer spending and technology adoption.
Last quarter
In Q3-2026, Alibaba reported an EPS of $1.03, significantly missing the estimate of $1.73, which led to a 7.09% drop in stock price the following day. The company has faced challenges in meeting analyst expectations recently.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-13.61%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.41%
Analysts expect Alibaba to report a rebound in earnings and revenue for Q4-2026, with a consensus EPS of $5.74. However, given the recent earnings miss, there is caution among investors regarding the company's ability to meet these expectations.
Bull case
If Alibaba can deliver strong EPS and revenue figures, it may signal a turnaround in its operational performance, boosting investor confidence and stock price.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could further erode investor trust and lead to a significant decline in stock value.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$5.74Earnings per share (EPS) is a crucial indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$247.1BTotal revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Alibaba's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $5.74?
A strong EPS figure would indicate improved profitability and could restore investor confidence after recent misses.
Q2
How does Alibaba's revenue of $247.1B compare to the consensus?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing market demand and the company's growth trajectory.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.17
Est. Rev
$556M
Impl. Move
±11.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be overly optimistic about Alibaba's ability to rebound, given the recent earnings miss and ongoing market challenges.
Supporting evidence
Recent earnings history shows significant volatility, with several misses impacting investor sentiment.
The options market is pricing in a 6.13% move, which suggests uncertainty that may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.
Key risk
If EPS comes in below $5.74, it could signal deeper issues within the company's operations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching Alibaba's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses and demonstrate solid growth.
Bull confirmed if
Delivering an EPS of $5.74 or higher with revenue exceeding $247.1B would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $5.74 and revenue falling short of $247.1B would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.13%
Historical Avg
±6.2%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 6.13% in either direction following the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±6.1% while BABA has averaged ±6.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
37.8%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$13.6M
999,971 sh
3 insiders
Net
$13.6M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 4 open-market trades
$12.1M
Net selling
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Alibaba beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +2.91%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await more clarity from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average one-day drop of +2.91%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
0 buys·2 sells
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$101,002.00–$265,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$1.4M
Net selling
$91,855.12
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $13.55
885,272 sh
$12.0M
Sep 25, 2026 · @ $13.68
103,046 sh
$1.4M
Sep 25, 2026 · @ $13.58
6,764 sh
$91,855.12
Sep 25, 2026 · @ $13.57
4,889 sh
$66,343.73
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 24, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$100,001.00–$250,000.00
Traded Jun 1, 2026 · disclosed Jul 7, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.