Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, May 11, 2026
EPS actual
$0.05
EPS est.
$0.20
EPS surprise
-75.00%
1-day move
-1.80%
The Mosaic Company's earnings report shows a significant miss on EPS, which could raise concerns among investors about profitability. Despite this, the stock did not react, remaining unchanged. The lack of revenue data and guidance adds uncertainty about the company's future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.05 | $0.21 | -75.00% |
| Revenue | — | $2.9B | — |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on the numerical results.
The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Operating in the materials sector, it plays a crucial role in the agricultural supply chain, impacting food production and global agricultural practices.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Mosaic reported an EPS of $0.22, significantly missing the estimate of $0.48. This marked a continuation of earnings volatility, raising concerns among investors.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-18.21%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.18%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Mosaic's upcoming earnings, with expectations of modest profit and revenue growth. However, the company's recent performance has led to skepticism regarding its ability to meet these targets.
Bull case
If Mosaic can deliver EPS above the consensus estimate, it would signal improved operational efficiency and potentially boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and heightened concerns about its market position.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
0.21EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well the company is managing costs and generating profit.
Revenue
2.9BRevenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Mosaic's products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Mosaic's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.21?
This will be a critical indicator of the company's profitability and could influence investor sentiment significantly.
Q2
What will the revenue figure be compared to the consensus of $2.9B?
Revenue performance will reflect market demand for Mosaic's products and overall business health.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±8.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Mosaic to rebound from recent earnings misses, given the cyclical nature of agricultural demand.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 7.12% move, indicating higher expectations for volatility than historical averages.
Mosaic's recent EPS trends show a pattern of recovery potential that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key risk
If revenue exceeds $3.0B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Mosaic can stabilize its earnings after a series of misses, making this quarter pivotal.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.25 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.10 would indicate ongoing challenges in the business.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.12%
Historical Avg
±2.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.1% while MOS has averaged ±2.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
31.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
98.46%
of float
Insider
0.34%
of float
Holders
933
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
24,751,481 sh · $494.3M
7.79%
4.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Mosaic beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.38%, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.37%, reinforcing negative sentiment around the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
20,744,667 sh · $414.3M
6.53%
0.5%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
18,292,494 sh · $365.3M
5.75%
67.4%
State Street Corporation
15,039,070 sh · $300.3M
4.73%
12.2%
Invesco Ltd.
14,904,222 sh · $297.6M
4.69%
32.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.