Equity Profile

MOS

The Mosaic Company

MaterialsFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals$7.1B

May11Mon

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market1:00 AM EDT

The Mosaic Company Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.05	$0.21	-75.00%
Revenue	—	$2.9B	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

The Mosaic Company Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.05	$0.21	-75.00%
Revenue	—	$2.9B	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on the numerical results.

What It Means

The Mosaic Company's earnings report shows a significant miss on EPS, which could raise concerns among investors about profitability. Despite this, the stock did not react, remaining unchanged. The lack of revenue data and guidance adds uncertainty about the company's future performance.

Company Snapshot

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Operating in the materials sector, it plays a crucial role in the agricultural supply chain, impacting food production and global agricultural practices.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well the company is managing costs and generating profit.

0.21

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Mosaic's products.

2.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-44.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Mosaic reported an EPS of $0.22, significantly missing the estimate of $0.48. This marked a continuation of earnings volatility, raising concerns among investors.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Mosaic's upcoming earnings, with expectations of modest profit and revenue growth. However, the company's recent performance has led to skepticism regarding its ability to meet these targets.

Bull Case

If Mosaic can deliver EPS above the consensus estimate, it would signal improved operational efficiency and potentially boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and heightened concerns about its market position.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

0.21

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well the company is managing costs and generating profit.

Revenue

2.9B

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Mosaic's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Mosaic's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.21?

This will be a critical indicator of the company's profitability and could influence investor sentiment significantly.

What will the revenue figure be compared to the consensus of $2.9B?

Revenue performance will reflect market demand for Mosaic's products and overall business health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Mosaic to rebound from recent earnings misses, given the cyclical nature of agricultural demand.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 7.12% move, indicating higher expectations for volatility than historical averages.

Mosaic's recent EPS trends show a pattern of recovery potential that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $3.0B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Mosaic can stabilize its earnings after a series of misses, making this quarter pivotal.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.25 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would indicate ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.12%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.1% while MOS has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

31.0%

Calls (563K)P/C Ratio: 0.92Puts (294K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mosaic beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.38%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.37%, reinforcing negative sentiment around the company's performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
2Insights into demand trends for phosphate and potash products.
3Management's outlook on agricultural markets and pricing power.
4Details on any operational improvements or efficiencies achieved.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures in the fertilizer market.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well the company is managing costs and generating profit.

0.21

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Mosaic's products.

2.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

-44.87%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.47%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Mosaic reported an EPS of $0.22, significantly missing the estimate of $0.48. This marked a continuation of earnings volatility, raising concerns among investors.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Mosaic can deliver EPS above the consensus estimate, it would signal improved operational efficiency and potentially boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and heightened concerns about its market position.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

0.21

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well the company is managing costs and generating profit.

Revenue

2.9B

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for Mosaic's products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Mosaic's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.21?

This will be a critical indicator of the company's profitability and could influence investor sentiment significantly.

What will the revenue figure be compared to the consensus of $2.9B?

Revenue performance will reflect market demand for Mosaic's products and overall business health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Mosaic to rebound from recent earnings misses, given the cyclical nature of agricultural demand.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 7.12% move, indicating higher expectations for volatility than historical averages.

Mosaic's recent EPS trends show a pattern of recovery potential that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $3.0B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Mosaic can stabilize its earnings after a series of misses, making this quarter pivotal.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.25 or higher would confirm a strong recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would indicate ongoing challenges in the business.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.12%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.1% while MOS has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

31.0%

Calls (563K)P/C Ratio: 0.92Puts (294K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Mosaic beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.38%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 1.37%, reinforcing negative sentiment around the company's performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
2Insights into demand trends for phosphate and potash products.
3Management's outlook on agricultural markets and pricing power.
4Details on any operational improvements or efficiencies achieved.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive pressures in the fertilizer market.