Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±8.7%
EPS beat rate
75%
Bank of Hawaii Corporation is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a crucial role in the financial sector, particularly in Hawaii, where it serves both individual and business clients.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, Bank of Hawaii reported an EPS of $1.47, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock dropped by 4.70% the next day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+5.11%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.28%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about Bank of Hawaii's upcoming earnings report, hoping for a continuation of positive EPS surprises. However, the absence of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.
Bull case
If the bank reports strong loan growth and maintains a healthy net interest margin, it could lead to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if the bank shows signs of declining profitability or weak loan demand, it could result in a negative market reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?
EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.
Q2
How has loan growth performed in the last quarter?
Loan growth is vital for the bank's revenue, and any slowdown could signal broader economic challenges.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±9.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for strong loan growth in Hawaii, which could significantly boost earnings this quarter.
Supporting evidence
Historical data shows that Bank of Hawaii has a 75% EPS beat rate, indicating a strong potential for positive surprises.
The options market is pricing in an 8.68% move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility, which could be driven by positive news.
The bank's recent performance has shown resilience, with several quarters of EPS beats despite market fluctuations.
Key risk
If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The upcoming earnings report will be pivotal in determining the bank's financial health and growth trajectory.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm strong financial performance and growth.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.40 would raise concerns about profitability and market conditions.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.68%
Historical Avg
±3.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.7% while BOH has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
17.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials
Fade rate: 15 of 30 (50%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 15 of 30 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.0%, with a raw directional average of +1.5% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
86.00%
of float
Insider
1.93%
of float
Holders
447
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
5,774,185 sh · $383.4M
14.64%
-0.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Bank of Hawaii beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.00%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to limited movement in the stock price.
Miss
If the bank misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.12%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,537,971 sh · $168.5M
6.43%
0.6%
State Street Corporation
2,413,000 sh · $160.2M
6.12%
7.9%
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
1,834,566 sh · $121.8M
4.65%
-8.2%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,779,109 sh · $118.1M
4.51%
-0.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.